Perhaps the most difficult period is over

 Perhaps the most difficult period is over
Times commentary Yang
8   monthly consumer prices rose 4.9%, down 1.4 percentage point increase over the previous month. This is the CPI rose 4 months straight down, is 4 months, the sharpest drop one, but also the first decline in monthly CPI increase to 5% range.
4.9% seems to have verified this had already appeared last month, a judge: the rising consumer price peak has been before. then perhaps we can say more than a year of China's macroeconomic performance is extremely complex and difficult situation has a small but definite improvement in mm is the most difficult period may be over.
support the judge is the main reference the first half of this year, China's macro economy or the complicated situation facing the dilemma: consumer prices rose almost equal to double-digit economic growth, but the possibility of a sharp decline. to continue to control inflation, economic decline may become a reality, and thus seriously affect employment and urban and rural incomes; loosening the reins of price controls, may lead to a vicious out of control inflation, lead to social unrest.
from the current situation, China's macro-economic policy-making over the past year stood the test of an extremely complex situation. clue gradually clear, is expected to become a difficult dilemma to deal with some of them should be easy.
price stabilization at the same time, the momentum of investment and consumption are good. This year, urban fixed asset investment growth in more than 25% or less, consumption growth has been maintained at above 20%, which is the main driver of economic growth, .7, and in August the two drivers continued to increase. This shows that as a big economy, industrialization and urbanization as both an accelerated phase of economic China's economy room to maneuver large growth potential is also great, short-term fluctuations will not change the long-term trend of high growth.
, of course, the situation is still far enough to relax the time, if handled improperly, the situation appears repeatedly not impossible. the most worrying thing is that industrial producer prices in August rose 10.1% is still high, this is the second consecutive month above 10%. raw materials, fuel and power price index rose 6 consecutive month, more than 11% up to 15.3% in August. But some scholars believe that the prices of production-based producer price increases will not be transmitted to consumer prices in proportion, since the current round of price increases mainly by the production caused prices of resource products, processing and manufacturing system will be gradually through the conduction, in this process, the conductivity will gradually decay. I am more agree with this view, because the addition to food, consumer or industrial products mostly in the oversupply balance supply and demand, producers will tend to try to digest price factors. Moreover, the international crude oil prices also seems to peak has passed, which prices of resource products to China should also play an inhibitory trend.
another The problem is that export growth rate dropped still more obvious (21.1% export growth in August, down slightly from last month), thereby affecting the growth rate of industrial production. It seems that last month introduced to improve export tax rebate rate of some appropriate increase credit support for SMEs policy efforts may not need to continue to expand or accelerate the policy in place. (Published in China Economic Times, September 11 edition)