Xiaokai the Disadvantages

 Famous economist Xiaokai (deceased, the article talks of the 2002 statement)
this topic may not fit many people's tastes, because now all about domestic Disadvantages of in the West after not many people, one economist called Watson died in his fiscal federalism, political economy and other areas of great achievements, . He's the English name is There are two forms of imitation, one is an imitation of the system, another is a pattern of imitation technology and industrialization. As a developing country, so there is no basis in the case of the system to achieve rapid growth through technological imitation. Why say underdeveloped countries in particular, technology is relatively easy to imitate, imitate the system more difficult, because the need to reform the system would violate the vested interests, so poor countries tend to imitate technology. However, backward countries can in the short term although a very good development, but will to the long-term development left many hidden dangers, and even long-term development may fail.
British law system in the gap
18 ~ 19 century, when Britain is the developed countries, and France is developing the most fundamental difference between the two is system gap. the French Revolution era from the authoritarian regime, and Britain after 1688 to achieve the constitutional system. constitutional system in that time is not a democratic system, but a republican system. The so-called republican system is primary election are privileged, only a few wealthy people the right to vote, so you can hardly say that it is democratic. But it is the trust, it is afraid of democracy, oppression of the minority into the majority, so the Republicans have a mechanism for the protection of minorities. such as the United States Senate, each state regardless of the size and number of people were a state, two votes, so it can be used as a mechanism for minority against the majority. Another fight against the U.S. democratic system is the Justice system. judges are not elected but appointed by the President, and the implementation of security of tenure. The judge is against the public opinion, so some people say that America is freedom of speech, this is not absolute. Republicans and Democracy is a big difference.
early success of the UK is a republican system, the success of the constitutional system. With such a system can limit the opportunism of those in power. Only the limits on the government's opportunism, and economic can be developed. This is the British developed a root cause. France was a dictatorship, and in politics is the rule of man. say it is is a feature of despotism, as a democratically elected government is not afraid to income tax too high, otherwise people will rebel. and a democratic government but will levy high taxes. Therefore, the development of Britain and France was an important distinction that is, the British government average tax rate is much higher than France, but Britain's tax laws are fair. In France there are many people who can not pay taxes, such as aristocracy. and in the United Kingdom, any person must pay taxes. precisely because tax law does not fair, so the average tax rate in France is much lower than the UK, it can not afford to engage in large-scale public utilities. Relationship Between Officials at the British called Today, talking about constitutional economics, political economy inside. The first feature is the king's financial and fiscal is separate from the state. There is also a ruling party of Britain was the financial and state finances are separate from the ruling party When in power can not engage in profitable business. rules of the game is unable to go directly to the game, so to speak, the bread must not acquire a cake person, not a conflict of interest with others.
North and Wenger Seoul in a paper to make a point, that is, the success of the British Industrial Revolution is not a purely economic phenomenon, but the Glorious Revolution of 1688 established the above said, such a set of constitutional rules of the game. This government is limited to opportunistic behavior lived, the people will follow the reduction of opportunism, so the industrial revolution will happen in the UK. policies first day and the fifth not the same, is the national opportunism. only in the constitutional system, the government be fair. For example the patent system, it is not public-private distinction, the Government is completely neutral; there is the common law provides for automatic registration system, that is, the right to protect the remaining system of private enterprise. These inventions can make money, so greatly promoted the development of technology commercialization and technological progress. With these, will have the industrial revolution. And when the French always emphasized the Government's science and technology award system is to determine the award by the government who who does not reward, which hinders its technology commercialization.
curse on those who will
this we can infer that in the 20th century, relying on state-owned enterprises, authoritarian system and the central planning can never be successful industrialization. However, with the former Soviet Union in the 1930s but autocracy, state-owned enterprises and central planning, by imitating the successful industrialization model of capitalism and technology to achieve the industrialization. The short-term success, had to Hayek and Mises, who has been greatly criticized, but today we see that it also makes the Russian system of constitutional government and rule of law has no solid infrastructure built. the Russian people to pay a high price. not only damage the long-term economic development, many people have even been persecuted to death. This is a post Disadvantages of examples.
also compared the development of North and South America. South America's resources are abundant, but has been in the position of developing countries, North America's resource-poor, but it is the world's most developed areas. It was this attributed to three reasons. First, countries in North America are large local authority; and South America as a just place a tax base, local self-government of the weak, it is difficult to develop. Second, North America is a Protestant country, South America is a Catholic country, cultural differences led to different economic development. Recently, an economist at Harvard University, through a regression analysis, but also reached a similar conclusion that the Catholic Church and with the corresponding the impact on economic development of common law is negative, while the Christian and the mainland with this method corresponds to the impact of economic development is positive. North have come to similar conclusions. Third, the implementation of the federal system in North America, and South America to implement a single system. It also involves unfair distribution. South America, the Gini coefficient is the highest in the world, reaching 0.6 ~ 0.7.
Recently, many historians have such a verdict, in the 18th and 19th century France, the production is a small number of aristocratic class service, which is characterized the average person can not afford, which makes the market size is very small, and thus high production costs, efficiency is very low. And then the British production is to serve the public, so the market size, low cost. Therefore, unequal distribution of income is hindering economic development. Some people say that income distribution is inevitable in developing countries, this view is worth reflecting, as they relate to good capitalism and bad capitalism points. At the same time income distribution and economic development are also reinforce each other in the sense that income distribution makes the rapid economic development, economic development, equitable distribution of income fast and makes. This is good capitalism. then and Disadvantages of capitalism with a bad lot.
face after China Disadvantages
80 to 90 years of last century in China, with state-owned (government), a joint venture (joint officials and businessmen), the contract system (Government Commerce), Hong Kong and Taiwan through the imitation of labor-intensive export-oriented new product imitation of Western models of industrialization and a large number of new technology to achieve industrialization, has been quite successful. the lessons from Russia, we can see, this short-term success, they might be replace the system of reform, resulting in high long-term costs.
example of home appliance industry in China is also very telling. Shang century, 80 the development of Chinese home appliance industry is basically dominated by state-owned enterprises, this process is a typical use of technology imitation instead of the process of reform. complete sets of equipment imported technical imitation, not to engage in imitation of privatization is to use technology instead of reform. a government monopoly banking, insurance, automobile manufacturing, telecommunications, and with the imitation of new technologies and the management of capitalism method to replace the system reform is the Disadvantages of China. This the Disadvantages of the most important shortcomings of state-owned enterprises are not inefficient, but the institutionalization of national opportunism, the Government only when the referee, and when one player. In this system, the efficiency of state-owned enterprises, the more negative long-term economic development.
China, several other examples of the Disadvantages of e-commerce, stock and futures markets. China's stock market has caught up with the hardware even more than Hong Kong, It is strictly a private company public, not to private companies the license to open securities companies, so the stock market to become shareholders of the vampire to the inefficient state-owned companies to supplement the tools. with people's words, End of bank shareholders to eat. business, many people believe that China's Internet economy has the advantage, but I do believe that electronic commerce has the Disadvantages of China, just look at most Internet companies are state-owned companies or joint ventures, we can easily understand this. Westernization Movement in the joint venture is called can not be universal, and that the two are the main form of e-commerce payments, without which the development of e-commerce How? So today the government monopoly in China would like the case of banking and credit industry, obtained the advantage of e-commerce is not possible. China in the last century, also consider themselves 50 years in the electronics industry has the advantage, the results Overtaking history of the rhetoric has become a joke. then in the electronics industry in Japan and China about the same, but by an honest study of capital capitalist system has become industrialized nations. the Second World War, the U.S. military occupation authorities in Japan drafted a constitutional doctrine (not the unlimited power of government institutionalized Soviet-style) of the Constitution (adopted by referendum), the Congress and through fair competition method, the dissolution of the monopoly of private chaebol (under U.S. pressure), the formation of the economic situation in the Warring States disputes. in the Constitution the principle of private property is inviolable and success of the patent system has become the driving force of Japan.
when I visited Pudong, After China has a sense of depth Disadvantages. Pudong's export processing zone, 85% of the enterprises is their land and other resources monopoly, and direct foreign and Chinese private enterprises for profit. most free economy is the export processing zone government lease, provide services, usually do not venture. In a free economy, private enterprise joint venture with the Government rarely voluntary, and the export processing zone, Pudong government is to use .
I understand that the Korean financial crisis, an important reason why private banks the government appointed chairman of the holding and the privilege. The financial crisis has focused on the reform of the outdated system, which abolished the government-controlled and assigned a large private Chairman of the privilege. But, I heard a lot of Chinese people, but they appreciate the system of South Korea's large companies, said China's state-owned enterprises also engage in a group of companies. but I understand the fact that South Korea South Korea's large companies are mostly private companies, with most banks is similar to China's Minsheng Bank's private bank. reform, such as banks like Minsheng Bank chairman appointed by the Government. It is the prerogative of the government financial crisis One of the reasons. I also hear that the Government Office in Pudong hi-tech venture capital firms do, is surprised, not even venture that most governments have chosen to do the government do, and in order to implement the government's industrial policy (British economic development of the characteristics of a successful industrial policy is no), latecomer in China shows how serious disadvantage. Now we are talking about into the WTO, how the national industry will be hit. As Weiying said, if the combat is the state-owned enterprises, it is possible the Chinese economy is good news. Many people believe that China's auto industry is not competitive, but they did not find out, there is no competitive state-owned Chinese auto industry, rather than the private automobile industry in China. I believe If the limits of private banking and the automotive industry regulation was abolished, China will be in 10 years, the world's largest manufacturer of its own private car. to see a private company everywhere in China, ; >
2004 年 7 7, 9:49 pm Beijing time, an outstanding Chinese economist, Professor Yang Xiaokai resigned from the world, at the age of 56 years old. < br> been in ten years in prison, never went to college Ph.D., founded the international school, a Christian, a single element may be nothing special, from these elements, the.
Xiaokai .1948 legendary life, the Xiaokai was born in Jilin Dun, Xi Yang, the scientific name of light, nicknames Oscar .16 years old, Xiaokai involved in a special way then the At that time he wrote an article entitled prison through his own youth. We do not know, then how to overcome youth Xiaokai is depressed and the fear of the unknown future, but the only thing we can see that Xiaokai is able to overcome adversity, through the worship time also held in prison for two dozen professors, engineers for the division, Xiaokai learning in mathematics, English, mechanical and mechanical. His genius was reflected also in this period, through repeated reading the three shortcomings of the labor theory of value, which the germination of the idea of classical economics to transform the future of the Lagrangian to derive the The Xiaokai directly admitted to the Academy of Social Sciences in 1980, the number of graduate .1982 Economic Research, the graduate had just graduated from the Wuhan University for graduate students to the professor of mathematical economics and economic cybernetics. In the recommendation of renowned economist Mao Yushi, Xiaokai rapidly Published on mathematical economics and economic cybernetics three monographs.
as a famous scholar, Xiaokai maybe this life is enough. But the fate of the genius of Xiaokai compensation does not therefore meet the Chongs among Xiaokai know the famous Chinese economist, Princeton University Professor Chow (G-Chow), Chow Xiaokai particularly appreciated the experience in econometric studies of natural events, he went to Springs in 1983 Washington universities. In the house of the Nobel Prize winner Steve Nash (Nash, the famous the world's elite, under the tutelage of international trade honor Xiaokai top players Dixit, Grossman, and received his Ph.D. in 1988. then Xiaokai to Australia Monash (Monash) university professor and less a year rose by the instructor Senior lecturer, was appointed professor in 1992. need to add that, in the Monash University Department of Economics, lecturer evaluation of teachers should be top 50 in the international journal of economics published in two papers at least, senior lecturer to 5, and 10 to associate professor, professor you must present the area of research the world's top five. from Ph.D. to full professor, Xiaokai only four years, so the characters can you say 不是 genius? < br> Xiaokai also served as the Australian Academy of Social Sciences, increasing returns and economic organizations Research Center. His paper appeared in Classical Economics and marginal analysis and the theory of super-being known as the Nobel laureate in economics, Buchanan's economics of today's most important research results. Jeffery - Comments Xiaokai Sachs said, work, Xiaokai for reconstruction based on Adam - Smith's basic insight into the general equilibrium economic analysis. This insight is: In essence, the division of labor is the driving force behind economic development and growth. Xiaokai contribution to economics.
also accompanied by brilliant doom, Purgatory early destruction of his body, the research work and sleepless nights to Xiaokai insufficient to support the body of his great ideas, he began to believe in Christianity, daily prayers .2001 September, his entire right lung is stiff, and speech very difficult. Xiaokai prayer may be moved by God, a miracle happened, the body Xiaokai turnaround of the situation actually was even swimming, tennis and even sailing. But the fate of the cycle or continue to run according to its own path, Xiaokai prayer wheel of destiny can only make a little slow about it, the beginning of 2004, Xiaokai who was diagnosed with cancer again patronize Xiaokai disappeared, this time he no longer luck, then went to Los Angeles for treatment Xiaokai, but to everything The Fall of the star can not save .7 7 May, he died Sashourenhuan.
Tianduyingcai?
Tianduyingcai!
time can erase everything, but we will not forget the legend Xiaokai !
with: Dr. Yang Xiaokai About
Xiaokai: 1988 was awarded a Ph.D. in economics from Princeton University, at Harvard University Center for International Development (CID) researcher, Professor of Economics at Monash University, Australia, Australia Social Sciences Academy of Sciences. His paper found in Journal of anonymous reviewers. He and Wong Yau together with the Recent new work, up a new field. Yes, I'm predictable, people interested in new classical economics, the rapid rise, I think it is likely to become the wave of the future. work Bilukasi (Lucas), Romer (Romer), Krugman (Krugman) is much better. Arrow, another Nobel Prize winner praised Yang's research to make Adam. Smith on the division of labor Coase's transaction cost theory and muddy as a whole.
more life
Xiaokai: Australian Chinese, Academy of Sciences, Professor
Organization: Department of Economics, Monash University, Australia Experience

December 1999: Visiting Professor, Peking University Guanghua School of Management;
1998 年 1 month - now: Institute for International Development at Harvard University and Harvard University, member of the International Development Research Centre;
1993 年 1 month - now: Mona even senior lecturer in economics at the University, Professor;
1987 年 -1998 years: Yale University Economic Research Center;
1996 年 12 月 -1997 in February: China Taiwan Institute of Economic Research Academy Visiting Fellow.
Academic Degree
1988 in the United States in economics from Princeton University, his Ph.D. in 1981, the number of economics in the direction of Chinese Academy of Social obtained a master's degree in Wuhan University in 1979 BS in Mathematics (equivalent). Main research areas

mathematical economics, international trade and economic growth, economic growth, micro-economics, institutional economics, industrial organization theory.
main results
1, New Classical Economics and Neoclassical Economics > 5,
10, - Xiaokai
Hayek on the impact of human thought and Confucian thought might be thinking of the impact of the Chinese people as far-reaching and pervasive. I am a thinking person has a unique economic, Nobel laureate in economics for all there is no sense from the worship of several of them I think they are worthy of honor is hard to say. And I was on the scientific method have a hobby of people, those who never thought of non-mathematical importance. but I read Hayek after work (he is a mathematical model from economists do not), there is a strong Brief Encounter, feeling very much appreciated. I tell myself not clear why this has never been the feeling, but I believe Most people read his books, view of the world will have in-depth changes in the bone marrow. Let me record the books I read Hayek's thoughts to share with readers.
Hayek's critique of socialist ideology Today, most Chinese people and the criticism of socialist ideas are very different. Today, most of the criticism of socialist Chinese, mostly from the socialist economic efficiency is not high after the implementation of focus on the. And Hayek critique of socialism The focus is the formation mechanism of the system. Hayek that the system of a free society is a spontaneous process, no one intends to design the whole social system. Therefore, the formation of such a system is the thousands of people compete with each other, interact results, so this system includes the spontaneous formation of all known information with each other, but also makes the competitive process can not monopolize the system design and formation mechanism, and can not use this monopoly to seek benefits for itself, so the synthesis of information information transfer process Huiqiang minimize the distortion.
the socialist system is the world's first community by some thinkers the overall design of a system, it is not spontaneously formed in a competitive process. Therefore, It contains information on the amount of information known by the limitations of a thinker, not hundreds of millions of people interact, the integrated use of different information.
Hayek, a free society with a socialist country differences, first in a free society, system and order is spontaneously formed, can not be designed by a few thinkers. Second, the system of a free society are some rules of the game, it only rules of the game is just making judgments. the socialist characteristics of the community on who should be the winner but what should be a society in the pursuit of specific objectives. Therefore, the socialist system, there will always be some people's desire to impose their social others. Just think, if a ball game who is not scheduled before the game is the winner, which also He Gongping competition to speak of? a free society does not necessarily destroy the socialist system and the implementation of the provisions of the capitalist system, only some of the competition rules of the game, the spontaneous development of the system consensus based on fair rules, as is socialism or capitalism, or other systems to win, is a thing no one can predict.
I read Hayek's book had an idea before, socialism and capitalism The difference between the capitalist system is not the difference between planned and unplanned. capitalist economy in the socialist planned economy more than than, for example, headquarters of McDonald's operations have many of the stores mandatory program. but the fundamental difference is that in capitalist society, the rights plan is a voluntary initiative by program trading and the formation of a socialist society, but the plan is to force the formation of the government monopoly. At that time I did not read Hayek's book, but look his book, it was found, he thought the idea of covering me, on reflection, I probably read Friedman's book and others, between the accepted ideas of Hayek. take a look at Hu Ping, etc. people talked about the socialist economy as a visible hand, so when the economy to a market economy that, people will not voluntarily accept the punishment of the market, resulting in the difficulties of reform. people will read the book Hayek found that these ideas are his pioneering.
Hayek pointed out that in a free economy, rules of the game is fair, so the enforcement rules of the game will be very effective, people can not lose, do not admit defeat, because the market is only the invisible hand, can not debate with them, can not resist its punishment, punishment can not blame any other person. But the socialist system there is only the visible hand to perform the incentive, the loser always a way find government, complaining about reward and punishment is unfair or unreasonable. Therefore, the rules of the game can not be enforced, or the said budget constraints are always soft. Under such conditions, fair competition in the game can not play together.
Kazakhstan In fact, Hayek's ideological and economic circles of economic rationality as called for in the mainstream school wrong way round. the Massachusetts Institute of Technology as the representative to send so-called scientific method, emphasizing the application of mathematical methods, assuming that the behavior of rational economic man can maximize the problem solving mathematical , rational behavior of economic interaction between people can use general equilibrium or game theory (or game theory, game theory) to solve. Many well-known economist of this school are often keen to prove a mathematical model of ; and the need for government intervention. In addition to economic rationality as a call to a number of economists, a mathematical model to prove the superiority of the invisible hand. Hayek's thought and these ideas are different. He stressed that the economic rationality Superstition may lead to the failure of the economic system. In fact, human knowledge is limited, for what reason, what is irrational, in many cases can not judge, or will make wrong judgments. the world seems a lot of common sense non-rational behavior, perhaps the knowledge of human society to contribute. For example, many bankrupt companies to provide for the success of the necessary experience. Therefore, we had better give up the pursuit of economic rationality, admitted ignorance on economic rationality , which Zhishizhuiqiu fair rules of the game, accept the rules of the game appeared in something whether it is the rational, or irrational.
I was a keen model (including game theory model) and new scientific methods of economics home. But, my hunch, I think the non-mathematical Hayek's economic thinking, the best economy than the existing model is much more profound. Maybe model the accumulation of several generations, we can use very complex advanced strict proof of the mathematical tools imaginary Hayek. Unfortunately, the mathematical model is now the most skilled group of economists, in my opinion is very shallow thinking group of people. more's the pity is that of mathematics in economic Science Applications, inevitably go through a gradual from the shallow to the profound and the accumulation process.
I was trying to prove Hayek mathematical ideas. I recently published a book Professor Huang Youguang ( See Yang and Ng, Specialization and Economic Organjzation, 1993, North-Holland), in Chapter 15 with a mathematical model shows that fully rational behavior in the absence of sufficient knowledge, may not be through a variety of organizations experiment (including the test is not the most effective organization) found that the most effective organization. Thus, in the absence of sufficient knowledge, certain non-rational behavior may help society find the most effective organization. Chapter 3 in the book, we use a sequential measures equilibrium model shows that the function of the market system does not allow everyone to share all information; the contrary, the market system will promote the professional result of information asymmetry, which makes the people do not need to know other professional knowledge, but it can enjoy all the professional sector products. Thus, the function of the market is, when everyone knew the whole community a very small part of the information, people able to take full advantage of all parts of this collection of information. This is the essence of Hayek's thought. click here kinds of thinking, if a person or government that claims to get the information society as a whole, which saw the Hayek developed the modern system of one of the most important criticism is the question of legislative power of Congress. He believes that the Congress legislation comprises two parts, one with the relevant rules of the game, such as the adoption of the Patent Law; the other is and   What about, for example, through the Environmental Protection Act. Hayek that, the last part should be the policy of the Administration, and not to the Lifa. the activities of these two sections should be separate and should not be done by a Lifajiguan. Its reason is that the legislature should not be concerned about society's common goal, and should be concerned about the impartiality rules of the game; As for those who attended the game on the different objectives, it is not ...

Feel unhappy

 These days, and superior leadership, there have been several conflicts. Now think about a problem is important work to do what they like, or like their work is important to do it. People express their views, there is no conclusion. Previously heard the word ; profitable sideline of life, happiness is the most important

Prices downward trend is hard to change! Will steadily .- Youth Wing immediately a classic - the focus of blog

 Editor's note: br> May Day holiday, the focus network of real estate blog ring shook it, and many real estate experts and the researchers concluded on the holiday property market seems to have become more pessimistic. ? Guangzhou Han with well-known real estate experts. Our topic of discussion today about who the property market May Bo won? First of all would like to know, before you May the marketing strategy from the developer and the attitude of a buyer's market in the observation, then your holiday property is how to envision it?
Han with: the media do a lot of holiday homework, learned from the newspapers and online push the plate more than last year's May Day holiday. Since the policy change after the holidays, we are not very high expectations for the holiday I hope there is some recovery in May. from the popularity, sales point of view, does have some pick-up, nor is it particularly disappointing. My overall assessment, the May sales certainly better than the previous months, But compared with last year, the holiday is no way to compare.
lot of consumers and the media towards the property market this year, or look down the majority. more to say now is that prices will drop to 8,500 yuan / square meter, If this is the case, according to the present situation but also declined. There are two concepts, one refers to the lowest point is 8,500 yuan / square meter, but also a say 8,500 yuan / square meter average price throughout the year, these two completely different concepts. So I think we judge the market, from various angles and positions will have different conclusions.
now have the media that I belong to the wavering, and I really like this. Why ? to judge from the price, I think the price is still not sure that most consumers can afford to buy a house level; a very short time if consumers can afford a house down to the extent that collapse will affect the financial or the entire economy. So my attitude is: also tend to fall, but it is not too fast. if you can achieve such a goal is very difficult. I think, last year's price rise is a large explosion of demand-driven investments, and now investment demand or is stuck, or dismantling, only high-end customers, to support such a large supply of great difficulty. And, now market products and emphasis on high-end products, affordable housing in this price of the home-based needs are very small. how to be able to find in the short term to support a large number of buyers to reach the normal volume, this is a very difficult task.
my analysis of this situation, there are two options: one is re-time to loose lending policies or canceled, even loosening the appropriate investment buyers can not make all back, only a small part of the back, but you can look at the current price supporting. So now I'm on the appropriate government bailout , insulation, or the developers and the industry to make any kinds of judgments, as before, I will not stand in a confrontation. I may not say so, let people into the market at this time, because from my point of view speaking, I do not support the market, but I hope to have many people to the market. So, in a contradictory state, on the one hand want to make the property market down, and slowly fell back, but another On the one hand do not want to drop too fast, too fast, the overall economic, financial and real estate are not good. Now, even I find this rapid decline in housing prices or the call is not easy to avoid plummet , because they do not lower prices there is no way to find more effective demand. As this part of the middle class, and now I do not think there is a lot for the market for the purchase of their products. I am now going to mobilize them to buy a house, they can afford to buy it line.
Moderator: The property market is expected to include three main aspects, one is a popular how, the second is the wealth, the third is the actual volume. Han always expect you to May compared with the previous property prices months is high or low it?
Han with: I see some areas the decline in housing prices even lower than I expected some, such as words, Baiyun District, head over there 6, 7 the price prefix , so the price began to appear in that area; but there are some areas and not much decline, is still relatively high, as Baogang Avenue side, the price is still 11000-13000 yuan / sq m, the highest in the region when there is no higher than 15,000 yuan / square meter, so the degree of decline is not great, but flourished as a venue. However, I think agree that the location of people and now there is a gap between the price, like not afford.
the Pearl River Metro has some real estate is not very high position, but there are also individual properties is still relatively high. However, down to 10,006 yuan / square meter to 10,008 yuan / square meter will be a lot of people to buy, and if will not cut prices so few buyers.
Moderator: When you go to the May offer, you, with you after reading the actual gap between the situation you expected?
Han with: I see not a lot I only saw two or three plates, I think the disk is mid-range of real estate, I think the sentiment is still quite strong, said to have some real estate but also queue up to see, has not officially opened for sale to the extent that some properties such as Guangzhou Park over there, under the current pricing of 6,000 yuan / square meter, or even 7,000 yuan / square meter at this price can be purchased at the Baiyun Road, the results also go there to buy, they may be optimistic about the region, the Guangzhou Metro future, the old city and the Nansha in Guangzhou Asian Games Village, between, and the supporting facilities to improve. basically, and I had to judge about the original May be I did not feel particularly how, the emergence of a downturn, it is almost unlikely The.
transaction recovery is inevitable, but because it is from season to season. but May had finished, it will naturally into the off-season, 6,7,8 months are traditionally not very good selling season. I think the developers expect them to pick up the top a little high, consumers are also above expectations in the price a little high. Do not expect prices will fall much so fast, do not expect a great volume of short-term increase at a rate to how much, and now no one can say, accurate. I'm not particularly stressed, is not really booming financial Ding, because they are made out of the feel of conclusions, there is no data to support.
now exists both voice and views are not wrong, the last to use the facts speak. This number is more or less in the end, the Housing Authority figures show there are some lag, we need a few days to see April's volume. So now more painful, the stock market can know the actual daily trading volume, and now the house is registered transactions occur every day, according to the current means of statistics can be published each day real estate transactions, transactions registration and make up their own subscription have been lagging behind in time, and now lag a long time to publish again. Guangzhou is now in the information published, particularly real estate information is a serious lag in publication, with the first city title does not very consistent, we used to have done quite advanced in this respect, but now gradually falling behind, which makes us very bad for the market to determine.
Moderator: Do you think the holiday shortened but still good things in the property market ?
Han with: five hundred and thirteen days can not leave long-haul travel, and property inspection on a lot of people to learn real estate knowledge, update their philosophy of life, ideas and pioneering vision is a great help . I do not have data to support, in the end such a property inspection property inspection inside in the percentage of how many. There are many properties for sale are not allowed to set prices during May, is still in the stage of the subscription, but most say about a price range, but not sure This transaction will affect the real intention and will. I believe that the developers who now can not easily set the price too high, too high, then source is inherently limited, and finally win, to the last listen to the price run. Now price sensitivity is very high, we can see a lot of real estate adjustments in place to achieve his target group more agreeable price, sales will be very hot; but if the price slightly higher than this number, or your brand, visibility less, it is entirely two worlds, and a possible desolate, one is on the disc. For this situation, I did not understand it as the overall property market pick up or recovery of the phenomenon, because it kinds of phenomena at each price level are likely to experience. For example there is a price the average line, you just below the average line will attract some buyers at this level over the purchase.
Recently, I prefer to dam effects explain this phenomenon, the first low-cost push plate Vanke, a large number of passenger Chung to them, in fact, the passenger is not the original group of Vanke, this part of the passenger are white-collar or high-end Jinling, in fact, a large number of white-collar workers still can not afford the real estate Vanke. In particular, the urban real estate, the original selling 18000-19000 yuan / square meter, Vanke sold 13000-14000 yuan / square meters, an unknown developer like him down price, consumers are still willing to buy their real estate Vanke. unless you lower than he can only meet him flat; you if you want to grab more customers, only less than he.
recent Express He's the strategy. Wang said had is completely return to a rational yet? have not, there are some gaps, but from a stage, Vanke had grasped the market opportunity, make the appropriate measures and preparation, no further reduction now. I that, they just express their attitude on the market, and many of the developers and professionals they want, at this stage if the stock market is bottoming reference, this is the bottom, the price should rebound.
but I think the market now or the lack of support for a large number of effective purchasing power, which is I have come to an objective analysis and views. This view is also necessary to support and validate the final data, and whether I'm not sure, I hope that at this stage on the property market transaction to have better performance, making the market not because volume is not good, but also to further reduce prices in order to attract buyers into the market. This is a double-edged sword, if you drop too much hate, then we do not dare to buy.
Moderator: May ��¥ people so much, why do not many people who shot or who have been shot and finally snapped. Han always you wrote in the blog: the developer must then price of money demand can be ineffective into effective demand, and why?
Han with: I saw this, is because as a developer of financial pressure as it is impossible to stop as the price of Vanke. Vanke has to grasp the market opportunity, return of a fully funded, has a deal with difficulties in the capital and conditions; But for many companies, in this win has not yet made a bargaining chip, in this case, difficulties in the future tense capital , they are pretty decent? this is life and death pass, you make life difficult for the enterprises are dead. This is about the same and war turning point, although this transition is peaceful, may not have guns, but you do not have money, and money not all take, and product sales can not, you will hardly survive. Vanke reason they maintain a high degree of vigilance, they experienced such a process; there are some companies began to develop after this process up, they did not try to to that storm, survival horror, may not be a sudden. real estate is no way out of the schedule, the real estate industry will always be a few winners.
now the real estate business like to say how many deaths there will be , Ren recently speaking at the Boao Forum: Real estate is a lot of the project company itself, is certainly dying. In fact, that is normal is also a large number of deaths registered enterprises, because the industry is only a few can succeed; because only they took industry law, they are more adept at the use of various resources, including interpersonal resources, land, materials, funds the operation so that they can become a leader. So the industry is not no one play in this game industry, this industry is not the threshold high, there are hundreds of millions of money to get into, but who can survive and thrive in this industry do? Vanke is drawing a lot of good characteristics and advantages of the enterprise, so they are in the market when making major change, they at least not wrong view, wrong even if it is not careful, he will promptly correct, and to be vigilant and take preventive measures also did not hurt. I find, the Vanke in 2006, a / 70 policies introduced, they were put forward policies to deal with cash is king, but later found not need, but the proliferation of funds, so they are high-profile expansion, but they are smarter than others, to finance the 200 billion last year , but also very good sales turnover of more than 500 million, the actual operating income of 300 million is outstanding, to seize the opportunity this year and sold more than 140 million, so quite a forward-looking companies.
Moderator: We now assume that Vanke is no price reduction, the property market will not occur such a situation it May?
Han with: for the things we do not a lot of empirical judgments, since the real estate development, a total of 30 years, but the real market operation is started from 1992 onwards. From this point of view, the real estate only through a multi-cycle complete. We look at the performance of the previous cycle, from high fever to the sudden cold, which is a very strong government intervention, the government tightening the taps were closed, no damn damn dead once and for all. Guangzhou office all that time off work, many developers are not sources of funding, because the gate of the bank of a country off, all stopped there. However, due to mainstream buyers at the Guangzhou group is not local, so very few local people are hurt, and only rich people early, and they are not mortgage a house, at most stages payment, banks have not been too much loss, but bank-owned real estate company to be a great loss, the bank claims get through the schedule, the failure to complete a particularly large number of projects.
it seems with the then certainly not the same situation, and now tightened monetary policy is not so tight as the year, only a modest tightening of the original size or will remain, only will not increase, the incremental affected; IPO in the market, but also affected capital affected the operation of this business, coupled with return of funds from the market affected, multiple pressures led to excessive expansion of the business will show a severely stretched resources, lack of funds. These companies want to correct, to adjust the difficulty is quite large, this expansion is a mistake that should not be overheating when excessive expansion movement, and now it can remedy the situation, this is hard to say, this is dependent on the further development of the economic situation and changes in our nation. very far away from the U.S., and the U.S. subprime lending crisis, the proportion of the total is not great, the amount of the impact of the parties now face the United States itself is not too large, we seem to have been greatly affected, especially the stock market is out nearly half of this effect than the much larger U.S. subprime effect, we have to form their own disastrous economic risk. just say, this effect is stop here, or can be re-adjusted return. I think the economy cycle changes will be accompanied by a big crisis, this is a symbiotic, interdependent. Now we have a market economy will inevitably be changes in the impact and influence of capital, leading to the affected stock and property markets and volatility. I found the stock market in Hong Kong and the property market is not fully synchronized, the stock market from two waves, a wave property market has not yet run its course. the property market from the financial crisis to the high-tech stock market changes, but also to the recent changes in the stock market and then to complete a change cycle, so this time we may see a relatively long cyclical changes.
as in previous years no matter what kind of government do not have the means to suppress the price way down, and now the Government has adopted many measures to prevent prices fell sharply, including the current supply of land, less than has been basically controlled. But this approach in turn will create a hidden future, the appropriate supply of land is to be guaranteed housing price is not vigorously pushed, have to shrink. If Vanke not cut prices, certainly there will be other companies cut prices, because they need to survive, if Vanke not price cuts, this round of price surges to two months to late, but this trend is inevitable , after all, the developer is to survive. but this is not the strength, diving caused a small developer, not a brand to take the lead developer of the largest low-cost measures, take the initiative.
Moderator: appeal more, we all speak Vanke is the But they take a very low-key strategy is to practice, you can not see nor do I feel. So, I think Vanke is still quite smart business. on their current push land prices, house prices have some quick success of the practice, the pursuit of short-term high-profit practice, I have some views, this is Vanke excesses of the previous two years there have been movements. However, the performance of the very wisdom of Vanke, great minds. I believe that this time they do not want to affect the market, but also not that property prices did not fall Vanke not decrease. they think they have done to do, enough of this, and now no further down, but sales will shrink and may Vanke, which also did not relationship, not the time to conduct strategic adjustments.
Moderator: We come back to look at the game May the power of property buyers and sellers, so far, what they are in a situation then?
Han with: I mentioned to have a point: It can not be said to enter a buyer's market, but signs of a buyer's market has been revealed. I also observed some of the industry peers, that they agree with my point of view, but we have to determine the direction of the results not the same. For example, I told Mr. Li Wenjiang direction is not the same judge, he is optimistic, I am not very optimistic. But in our view on this issue is consistent, if the market may come to a buyer's market to enter a downstream channel must be, because if the uplink channel and then go back to the seller.
I recently observed, we even downwards so terrible? to now developers of capital, conditions, they again experienced such a cycle, then, is completely not lose. then R & F, Hengda are developed based on what is it? 1996,1997 years of these enterprises or small and medium enterprises, have experienced from 1997-2003 of years of development has become a large jaw, and have rushed to northern markets, and to the Northern Expedition. the property market should be like this cyclical changes, developers can also recuperate, consumers can properly raise interest rates, is one such form. Today there is a media made, Guangzhou again 5,000 / sq m, 6,000 yuan / square meters of houses this is not possible. But we see May in the central city to have a house in the first 6 characters push, although this number is rare, but this is entirely possible. from the previous estimates of the cost to get to it, developers can now profit is very high, space is still a great price.
Moderator: We have suggested that even if the price is still the Vanke profiteering, Kang Road, several projects that are public land.
Han with: But real estate development cycle is longer, usually several years before a project can develop a complete, labor costs capital costs are to be considered, but its value is not low profits, even in Liwan District Vanke sold 10,003 yuan / square meter or a high profit margin is almost close to one hundred percent. particularly in the Party developed as a developer, is a labor contractor being developed, and in the sea, Hengda, R & F, Hopson, then dry them and other two live, builders and developers can earn profits, they are quite good cost control . Guangzhou why what circumstances, what the market can win with them it is the knowledgeable.
feng shui has turned. If will enter a buyer's market, I think that consumers must have more say in to the greater. unless the overall situation reversed, and now the overall situation seems to have less co-Ren Zhiqiang, a speech at the Boao, provided that: If today's economy, or 11.9%, the house will rise like last year. The question is You can also maintain this growth rate it? rate of inflation, income is changing, if income has doubled, I believe the price we are not a problem. In fact, apart from a few high-income groups, and ordinary people have a few people there over the past decade income doubled? I know, there are some monopolies, finance, oil, and so their income is very high, but not all are high-income people, but people feel this revenue growth each year, more than 10% point. This may be concentrated in a few people, few people may not be 10% but by dozens, most people may be zero, even negative. Even if your salary has doubled, your mortgage capacity or to a cumulative process. Even if your salary suddenly rise up, not months, to buy a first down can accumulate, but also for several years Caixing. before more than 30 million can buy in Guangzhou an ideal house, now more than 30 million can pay a down payment, which is totally different concepts. what we do come back say, 2002,2003 in Guangzhou with the nature of the current difference? is the degree of urbanization, the MTR has already begun at that time built, the construction of all aspects of the urbanization level of the difference with now is not great. So, I think there is still cyclical changes in real estate, unless inflation makes people's income has doubled. but if you put the income caused by inflation growth removed, the price should still be restored.
we can see that Hong Kong's real estate market, each periodic change will bring more than 50% decline. If we are the market also appears that the case, Many people will consider the problem of negative equity. There is now a magazine raised the issue to be concerned about negative equity, when house prices fell by more than three or two into, you will become negative assets. This does not mean negative equity financing in general no debt, you owe the bank money, you sold your assets or liabilities. your first price drop was all over, how much you lower and lower the number is negative. This is not an ordinary insolvent, but refer back to your bank after the sale of assets still owes the bank money.
Moderator: Can you specifically talk about, to what extent it just like we expect the same?
Han with: I feel that housing prices in the suburbs over ten thousand is not normal, and now developers get the land cost is very low; Country Garden, they do well, they profit growth rate is very high. outskirts of thousands and even to twenty thousand is not normal, if financial pressure so they have to sell is not. Liwan in urban areas is relatively good, all real estate price gap is not large, Yuexiu, Tianhe and Baiyun is quite volatile, there are some real estate Tingbu Zhu on the price, some real estate to wait and see, some real estate is then reduced. the central area of the first adjustment in place than the suburbs because the suburbs is still very high profits.
Moderator: media reports this, during May to present a report on many aspects of the property market is not very sing up attitude, dark period has passed. you for your words of Wang and Li Lian is how to think? position on the two bosses stand the phenomenon, but also how to see it?
Han with: the media mentioned this, I want to say something to the media some of the views in this regard, the media often operate by developers, is attitude can be seen from the media's position papers, each paper has a position and I hope that the media is more neutral, objective, of course, will be his tendency. I think we should allow different voices are also present, but You can do some processing, so consumers will make the time to look at this newspaper is not the same feeling. I compare various media every week this point of view and caliber, so I am very touched, and which the media during this is how to see, this media stand, viewpoint and attitude towards how? media, this change is normal, and is based on market changes and to changes in various aspects of change. but I hope that there is a media there are different voices, so that you can be more objective, more free, more diverse information which to cultivate and enhance their ability to judge, I think this is better.
Vanke I have already mentioned several times, I do not Vanke is intended that through this position to dictate and affect the overall market, I think if Vanke to do so, it is not wise to act. if what you say can not be honored, then to a position of authority you will have a significant impact a; There is also a Li Lian as a real estate trade associations may be the role of the appeal statement. I also saw an article online written by very good, from their point of view of that Wang can be said now is a capital case , but now the R & F has not the capital. R & F chain now has a lot of money problems, A shares can not listed, go to the operation of large commercial projects, the real estate market is better though withdrawn from circulation. because the R & F with the million in the market strategy Division is similar, but not in the residential side of mainstream products, recently turned to commercial product sales, in the current real estate market is not particularly optimistic about the situation, not a particularly good time to sell, unless you sell at low prices This sell-off would also affect his sales strategy. Now, Li Lian he hoped the intervention of public opinion to change people's expectations, I think, although an effort is futile can not say, but I think the results will not be very good , but you can play the role of municipal care. before I came across this state will take the initiative, tit for tat, if you change to that angle, it was just as can the market be appropriately care about, and will not drop too fast.
Moderator: This year's prices and still high compared to last year. In May, the focus of blog which many people are writing their own views on the property market in May, we see that, all the property market for the May Day evaluation and expectations are not very optimistic about the future of housing prices is expected to take the downstream channel is relatively strong, Han always your blog is very clear that there is price, you that can not crash, or to decline, this increase should be how to make it ?
Han with: Strictly speaking, the average price this year has dropped to 20%, and also 10% lower and lower, then the year must be reduced about 30%.
Moderator: But look at the price now with the same period last year still high compared to.
Han with: is that, if returned to the same level as last year, then annual average price of 8500 yuan / sq m, the lowest price necessary to 7,500 yuan / square meter or so. If this then, it has been fully constituted tumbled. So far, we can not rule out the housing slump that possibility, because we do not know the status of the second half look like, here is to have the prerequisite, such as whether there will be financial crises the economic crisis, if these are unavoidable, then, only waiting for the emergence of this result.
if the current economic difficulties can not be resolved, then, including the stock market, the economic structure of the situation, and now all the problems, all of what makes the entire economic structure becomes less reasonable. If you let the market adjust, then there will be crisis, the credit has been biased in favor of the past, real estate, and when a problem the industry will pose a great risk. This risk should be has not been fully released, we have not yet overcome this.
I often jump to see the real estate industry, I feel not very optimistic. Not long ago I heard many times in the president of the Society ���Ʋ�stresses three basic change, one is the situation in China's development, the second is long term bullish on the real estate situation will not change, the third is a small place with more money will not change the situation. I talk to him privately, you three remain unchanged from the negative side I can prove that it is changing. If the situation is changing all the time, the real estate in order to change it is very difficult.
why I been so highly of China Vanke? I think they are really high, they can seize market opportunities, to have such forward-looking sense, even if I am wrong to make such precautions, there is no loss; but the things you do not do to miss this opportunity to the . Hengda post such a large range of prices and benefits? but it was listed when they are down for not too good, but also because it is the most popular time of sale price determined by the same Vanke also have this similar situation exists However, the volume of Vanke high disk is not large, but low-key approach, comfort was very good, so as not to affect overall sales.
commitment I have always thought the price difference is not such thing as compensation for the obligations of the developer . but you if not handled properly, will affect the company's brand, reputation, integrity, etc., that the fundamental point of financial compensation can not cover the brand by the hit, or even your potential and field are likely to be affected. I saw Hengda has a really fierce momentum phase, when the market is temporary. If not the Hong Kong stock market so bad, they will do well. I do not think the IPO has been suspended from their problem, as early as six months if they This operation, I think it may again become the world's largest aircraft carrier. But the timing is not good, it's very nice to do a few moves. But that thing just in different circumstances when it becomes foul strokes, should not spend so much money is spent. They did not catch a good time to move forward if a little half the time, is now the most imposing them.
dig pits I have talked about the theory behind you with no effect on the; others take the lead down to the front of the consumers are consumed, lower and lower when you have no effects. can only continue to be, but this way, then it becomes more price competitive. My theory is actually a dam game to learn prisoner's dilemma theory, but a number of trench fills nicely than an informer, who should go to the informant, anyone can profit, the price is bound to break this alliance was to go to. Vanke cut prices up to be scolded or two, there are no violations of law; the same ...

Perhaps the most difficult period is over

 Perhaps the most difficult period is over
Times commentary Yang
8   monthly consumer prices rose 4.9%, down 1.4 percentage point increase over the previous month. This is the CPI rose 4 months straight down, is 4 months, the sharpest drop one, but also the first decline in monthly CPI increase to 5% range.
4.9% seems to have verified this had already appeared last month, a judge: the rising consumer price peak has been before. then perhaps we can say more than a year of China's macroeconomic performance is extremely complex and difficult situation has a small but definite improvement in mm is the most difficult period may be over.
support the judge is the main reference the first half of this year, China's macro economy or the complicated situation facing the dilemma: consumer prices rose almost equal to double-digit economic growth, but the possibility of a sharp decline. to continue to control inflation, economic decline may become a reality, and thus seriously affect employment and urban and rural incomes; loosening the reins of price controls, may lead to a vicious out of control inflation, lead to social unrest.
from the current situation, China's macro-economic policy-making over the past year stood the test of an extremely complex situation. clue gradually clear, is expected to become a difficult dilemma to deal with some of them should be easy.
price stabilization at the same time, the momentum of investment and consumption are good. This year, urban fixed asset investment growth in more than 25% or less, consumption growth has been maintained at above 20%, which is the main driver of economic growth, .7, and in August the two drivers continued to increase. This shows that as a big economy, industrialization and urbanization as both an accelerated phase of economic China's economy room to maneuver large growth potential is also great, short-term fluctuations will not change the long-term trend of high growth.
, of course, the situation is still far enough to relax the time, if handled improperly, the situation appears repeatedly not impossible. the most worrying thing is that industrial producer prices in August rose 10.1% is still high, this is the second consecutive month above 10%. raw materials, fuel and power price index rose 6 consecutive month, more than 11% up to 15.3% in August. But some scholars believe that the prices of production-based producer price increases will not be transmitted to consumer prices in proportion, since the current round of price increases mainly by the production caused prices of resource products, processing and manufacturing system will be gradually through the conduction, in this process, the conductivity will gradually decay. I am more agree with this view, because the addition to food, consumer or industrial products mostly in the oversupply balance supply and demand, producers will tend to try to digest price factors. Moreover, the international crude oil prices also seems to peak has passed, which prices of resource products to China should also play an inhibitory trend.
another The problem is that export growth rate dropped still more obvious (21.1% export growth in August, down slightly from last month), thereby affecting the growth rate of industrial production. It seems that last month introduced to improve export tax rebate rate of some appropriate increase credit support for SMEs policy efforts may not need to continue to expand or accelerate the policy in place. (Published in China Economic Times, September 11 edition)

Peng Xiaoyun young people, read, or read Han Xu Zhiyuan

 Peng Xiaoyun End of the World blog
pengxiaoyun.blog.tianya.cn
editor of Die Zeit comments, please Cigao: timeopinion2008@gmail.com
young people, read, or read Han Xu Zhiyuan?
of : Peng Xiaoyun Date of submission: 2010-4-10 2:10:00
this one night, I was sifting through Xu Zhiyuan. Xu Zhiyuan, 2006 (I have officially become the media people that year) wrote the confusion, still today bothering me, even more than in 2006 even more of situation, can only say that this country is rapidly declining.
on the newspaper issued an article about Google talk so good, but not as good as others in Chongqing gag spoof of a newspaper article put forward a so-called network of influence, I feel that this era has been out of the question (or even earlier, with comments the various colleagues in the Department of The users will be reduced to the threshold of their own.
spoof of power, taking away the power of direct dialogue, do not be afraid to laugh that power, power is not afraid to laugh.
Indeed, Li Hongzhong not afraid of the National People laugh. Signed, positive Solution , even Hongzhong interview has been arrogant to say, . So we'd come prepared topics, only that at the beginning of Han writing for selected times, it was a godsend, but if not winning, we introduced this series of topics as usual.
finish the project, awake at night, three o'clock last night, it changes the page, see Hu Yong's book, cynicism.
can not be underestimated. Orwell has brilliantly pointed out, l the new words that we have lost not only the language of the elegant and clear, but the language of chaos turned into a central tool of political control, allowing the system to legitimate the rule of r. It is the consequences of cynicism, the performance of political apathy and despair and helplessness of reality and the acceptance of dual thinking rmm l, while laughing at the performances show a feeling of contempt into opportunism. discussed in the section was so classic! but my opening space is limited, and the time to write the concept of cynicism flash before, but dared not go in depth analysis, feeling that it is not a short opening can carry out, but now regret it, or think we should point out at the opening, my opening was written emotional, and ethereal, and if this cynicism to point out, you can upgrade one level.
of the interview which, in my opinion to a successful issue, is not just a bunch of experts to verify your knowledge, but rather, to set our agenda, and even allows Ligong Ming Wang Yue similar to these two qualities, values are the same scholar, voiced a different view This is the way of speaking needs of the times, tell you that you do not know, or you can not think of.
current operations, and more confident in my belief, the paper reviews the future of media, if also more a long time coming, I think, must be out of a simple logic of liberalism, to a complex of more subtle ways of speaking more precisely, the article out of position is simple, get rid of gag are not self-respect, taking a kind of technical content, knowledge content, methodology, content of the comments, otherwise, the paper comments on the media there is no need for Internet users gag wonderful than we do.
But how far can we go? my knowledge base was so poor, the powerless vision is so , is so vulgar language has, I seem to be looking for a distant goal.
Fortunately, you have them, my colleagues, we are so lucky to be a small team, there is no obstacle to reaching an understanding of communication and . they make me feel, regardless of the overall fate of paper media, we can stick to the current speech, is a kind of lucky.
tired of self-duplication
By [Xu Zhiyuan] 2006-6-26 0:06: 01
columnist, I am tired of this occupation has never been so.
think of October 2001, I first started working in this capacity.
is 9.11 inspired my initial interest. 2000 years, I read hero, then as a columnist Walter Lippmann must be a hero. since 1931 began to write, the elite of the world more than 10 million readers through hundreds of media reproduced, to understand the changing his views on international situation. He began to speak, the whole world is listening, in the 20th century diary of 50 years, he always was hastily written, to see the Greek Prime Minister, the President of Egypt, but pushovers. U.S. ambassadors served the new government in office before they are eager to get his teachings.
him proud, even a little look down on his own engaged in journalism. He got up every morning and methodical, quiet calm of the writing, playing tennis, chatting to the club, he never follow news events, he does not believe in exclusive news, thought it was just cheap curiosity. he is relying on His analytical ability, he had a mathematician mind, news of the world but he is just a means to an end. This does not mean he does not make mistakes, in fact, he often made mistakes, people listen to his voice, not because he predictive power, but he quietly the method of analysis and calm temperament. his knowledge of vision so that he is more like a philosopher, because he always talking about the New Deal's shortcomings while to talk about Hayek and Keynes the future of liberalism. tone of his writing, sometimes like a politician, to look at a whole, not partial.
Lippmann never please the reader, through his column of the United States, James. Reston as columnist, and Reston, senior decision makers but also affect the media, and these decision-makers affected the radio and television, radio and television will affect the public. In Lippmann false imagination, I had a fairly serious career columnist for three years, then began deeply disturbing. my lack of penetration, can not see through the essence of complex phenomena, more simply described them in some. Even worse, I may never be found can not get the kind of influence, Lippmann and the news media live in a growing era of government agencies, the ability to influence public opinion and political decision-making, commercial activities, which also have to provide more information columnists. in their Behind it is a global leader in the emerging countries, the United States by the world's attention to the voice of people eager to read Lippmann, because from seeing the possible direction of U.S. policy, the U.S. elite, likes and dislikes.
public opinion the power is still weak in China, as a columnist, you can get too little information, very often, you can only guess at the periphery. even comments of international politics, you can not arbitrarily to the Middle East, the White House or the headquarters of the EU office. Then, you find that elite opinion in the China of today's anti-intellectual society, to get more respect than spurned. In our time, the columnist meant is the kind of writing 800-word essay irrelevant who rather than the layout of the newspaper published the most important social changes taking place in a serious view of the writing. with artists, poets, film directors, as a columnist is one of the hallmarks of a national creative, it is clear that China is so lack of this number shows that the Chinese community in terms of self-understanding there is a huge obstacle. 

Six Records of inspection in northwest China - Totems

 Totems
Zhuoni County in Gansu Province in the southern mountains, there is one side of the road is located in a small village, and other poor villages difference is, where in addition to old adobe houses, the bare slopes of the Loess In addition, the highest point in the village, two men stood a tall stone mm that is a man's genitals. when you see women's waist Long absorbed on strong with a big spring, and then see them behind that adheres to the top of the second cow The men of the dead carry the weak, and soon enough to understand that the contents contained in this stone, and can hear the cry of a living room adobe houses and the groans of people inside.
one, poverty and totem
Zhuoni County in Gansu Province in the southern mountains, there is one side of the road is located in a small village, and other poor villages difference is, where in addition to old adobe houses, bare loess slope outside the village the highest, how high they stood a stone mm that is a man's genitals. when you see women's waist Long absorbed on strong with a big spring, and then see their cattle behind the top two who adheres to carry the men's weak dry quickly enough to understand the content contained in this stone, and can hear the cry of a living room adobe houses and the groans of people inside.
here, man is the day, the man is, the man can Yuanshe foreign land to work, able to go to logging deep in the mountains, even man frail skinny, the plow will always be held in the hands of men. and women, while there were exuberant, but life belongs to men, seek happiness pursuit of wealth, seeking Hing Ka Shing industry, in addition to the sustenance of the gods, for all their faith in the man body. not only the decline of men in the family and poverty, few men have no hope of escape hungry families.
Photo caption: continued millennium, backward, primitive farming practices mm top bars
two cattle developed coastal regions in China, and many others for boys, would rather risked ; family line, ancestral surnames continued. labor, and Hero of promise to marry not only capable wife back, and the resistance will force the family is growing. history, where the Tibetans have had polygamy and polyandry marital customs, Polygamy is mainly a symbol of wealth, while polyandry is not in order to maintain the family's property is divided, labor can be together forever.
Photo caption: Property, men dominated in large part owned by the monastery. in Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan border areas, and maybe we only know Jiuzhaigou, in fact, in this region, the same as the original ecological nature Jiuzhaigou Scenic Area, Phi Phi everywhere. I Qinghai, Gansu Progressive, along Lintan, Zhuoni , to Xiahe, in yellow on the road south, hundreds of kilometers are spent throughout the day.
the Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi, Gansu's heavy mountain peaks, snow-capped mountains in Qinghai into pasture has There are more than 40% of farmers live below the poverty line in. the harsh natural environment trapped locked them out of backwardness and the meal far more important.
Photo Caption: money to help the poor, the villagers heard the radio one after another toward the village
Photo caption: we must step on the old viewing platform subsidence, burning a person's history
Gansu Gannan April is busy spring planting season, a winter snow-covered slopes of the valley everywhere can see the busy farmer. In addition to Rock Hill Cliff, where there have been re-soil tillage. farmers began to pray to God, pray drought, hail, pests far away, so barren land can be compared with the previous A few years more to grow barley and wheat. poor farmers make enough money to buy fertilizer, not only is Tu Zafei also far less than production. high altitude and long winter, so there can only be harvested once a year crop and yield only more than one hundred kilograms. Therefore, farmers at home, all the station cabinets, barrels have been used to store food. into the adobe houses, look as long as the open platform will be able to counter an estimated wealth of farmers much.
Photo caption: return of warmer weather, the Tibetans began to pack up their homes to be
Photo caption: township primary school students began returning to school. In this school, the classroom often have a three year students while school ,8:30-9: 15 to grade language ,9:30-10: 15 VI grade math hh
Caption: Pagoda is so high in view of her people who give them faith and confidence in
to escape from poverty, farmers in the county near the road and start looking for a new life path. Linxia Hui Autonomous Prefecture, with the country's poor farmers in the development of film production money, planting fruit trees on sloping land, the development of aquaculture in mountain .1993 production reached 15,900 tons of fruit, its income per capita income equivalent to 14% of households; meat output reached 28,700, equivalent to household per capita net income of 28%. government stepped in to the field of rural surplus labor organization engaged in the construction, mining , gold, trafficking and other aspects of labor activities, labor export 20 million per year, equivalent to the state one-eighth of the total population, the average labor income per labor go up to 500 yuan.
but in the vast mountain area , peasant farming is still the only way to survive. In those no roads, no electricity in the village, like hundreds of years ago, farmers still lead an isolated life of poverty, more than half of farmers are not even the county seat been.
Photo caption: severely degraded grassland plateau, in the past in the lyrics of the meters of altitude pasture grass
difficult to seek from a realistic point of view, the western mountains to escape poverty, these barriers are difficult to eliminate in the short term: the first is a serious shortage of infrastructure, most of the mountain there is no asphalt road, some places still use hand phone, because many water Liti dilapidated irrigation project can not be used, can only rely on rain-fed crop. Second, the inability to control population growth, per capita arable land and declining per capita grain possession of food, making more places of poverty farming farmland more serious predatory. Third, the low quality of labor in poor areas of the adult illiteracy rate as high as 40% in mountain areas and more than 70%, due to cultural backwardness, living occlusion, severe inbreeding, many people continue to fool the village of dementia increase.
face harsh living conditions, poor farmers in mountainous areas, looking at his eyes always look forward to village, the mayor who many of them who Mao Zedong's portrait hanging on the wall, all day dreaming elderly people can be like forty years ago when it was given to their land once again to drive away the evil, the good harvest to send into the house. However, a chest, wearing a Mao badge, the heart has long been indifferent to the mayor tells the his own mind: br> Xiahe County in Gansu in the southern one of the most densely minority. in the county fair, everywhere you can see the Tibetan man wearing Yang Piao, Phi hijab or wearing a white hat back and forth, wearing Buddha Lama temple in Buddhist monk's robe , wrapped in black robes, cotton dresses and Grecian priests and the blonde foreign tourists. here is a different religion, different nationalities, different cultural background or even a combination of pooling. In between the rows of buildings, the most beautiful, most Luxury is the Muslim mosque. different roof structures marks the different sects, the temple loudspeakers hung high on the wall, enough to make the voice of the imam preach the doctrine spread to every corner. by the people funding the construction of the temple is located in the County Government across the small river, the courtyard was not much, but carved pillars and painted beams, gold flat Shuoshuo. Tibetan Buddhism, one of the six famous temples of Labo Leng Temple, Pang, according to Piedmont, the whole temple covers an area over 460,000 square meters The main palace buildings Vatican nine Shi Yuzuo huge building were sitting north to south, back on Castle Peak, the face of pine forest, mountains around the river Sang Song Temple, the , less expensive (Buddha Gong Di), shag, French Court, stupa and prayer wheel room, pour in the thick of the Buddhist name of low forest sound, especially to the magnificent and spectacular, to foreign tourists and pilgrims to gradually into shengjing sense.
Photo caption: Ten Xiahe Tibetan Buddhist monastery Labrang Monastery, one of the top
Photo caption: In the mountains gaoya out of the temple stands majestically above
Caption: Tibetan China Buddha home town threshold
vertical extension of the number of road from east to west, the sides covered with food stores, restaurants and clothing stores. center has a seven or eight hotels and guest houses, mosaic front with the neon dance halls, karaoke OK sign is especially dazzling. side of the road leading to the Labrang Monastery, lined with hundreds of clothing, household supplies and Tibetan arts and crafts stalls, teenage boy wearing a look of childish Hui a trial of strength sell to passers-bone necklaces and national decorations.
strong religious flavor to this already very poor, brought unexpected prosperity pastoral county. Labrang Monastery in Gansu has now become one of the important tourist attractions, the Gansu to the people given the chance, will be to the Labrang Monastery to visit. the increase in floating population, the county seat of Xiahe driven the rapid development of commerce and services, making it the most active market development Gannan small towns.
carefully observed Xiahe county's prosperity, there are several points of great significance:
First, a blend of different cultures on the mutual promotion of social development play an important complementary role. in Gannan areas rarely open to see the Tibetan shops, engage in services, transport and tourism projects, Xiahe county business to have a large number of Tibetans with the Tibetan, Hui and mingled with the two communities (including marriages) inseparable. Muslim historical tradition and the shrewd business transactions that impact on the local Tibetans great. Although the two communities in many parts of Tibet back to the resource consumption and other reasons due to constant conflict, but this conflict is not all negative effects, at least, every time the process to resolve a conflict of interest, the new balance of interests to be generated, and achieve the fusion of the effect of increasing interaction. Similarly, in Xiahe county, the Han culture, the business implications of minorities is also crucial. whether local or foreign tourists in the Han Chinese, and their eating habits, clothing trends, behaviors are directly guided Hui, Tibetan businessmen operating behavior. such as Hui's restaurant, although claiming to be the Northwest flavor, but in the seasoning actually melt into the habit of many mainland tastes.
Second, religion and Culture. Xiahe at least prove that the prosperity and economic development of religious culture has an important role, but this does not mean that there is a place for religious activities must be rich. in Gannan, southern Qinghai, Tibet's most impoverished areas, religious activities, although very frequent, but because these impoverished temple is small, so is mainly engaged in simple charity, pray for worship activities, in addition to the hearts of most devout religious people, the content of Tibetan Buddhism, philosophy knew nothing about and even apart from God to bless the outside no longer. Therefore, in this place, the more serious religious atmosphere, the more backward the economy, Xiahe county is completely different, Labrang Tibetan Buddhist culture highly rich society has played a special role. Labrang Monastery, the first month every year, July and September, the law would, Lama debate by, say, to persuade law, various forms of Tibetan, the Tibetan Buddhist philosophy and culture of fully unfolded Labrang Monastery is a typical Tibetan Buddhist Gelugpa monasteries, the most important features of the Gelug Sect is a plan, a system of teaching, first, whether exoteric or esoteric, must be based on strict discipline, so the discipline is the first prerequisite. Learning Representative must be proficient in exoteric Buddhist monks in several stages and all aspects of the history of several of the classic, and then learn Tantric, combined with Let's hear think University, continued Department of the Senate, continued his subordinates homes, the Wheel of Time, Medicine, University Hevajra set of six colleges and other Buddhist philosophy, astronomy, geography and medicine in a whole, therefore, the quality of most of the monks of the monastery is high. the Monastery of the formation of a complete set of religious and cultural system, and calmly walked through the various exchanges, so that the development of Xiahe County, to some extent with the grief associated with Hindu temples.

How to determine the quantities under the Tender Offer

 How to determine the quantities under the tender offer
Abstract: As China's socialist market economy system and development of construction field full implementation of the bidding system, the core issue is the competitive pricing through market competition the formation of prices, the inevitable requirement of the project budget fixed valuation method and system reform, establishment of a corresponding project cost pricing methods and management systems. the Bill of Quantities in the international bidding on a commonly used valuation methods. Engineering the amount of construction bid documents list is an important part, is a unit of measurement that a certain physical quantity and project files, bill of quantities is a the design drawings and specifications and technical specifications, etc., into a series of construction projects and project the number of forms. After the implementation of the Bill of Quantities, to achieve the formation of the government pricing to the market price changes. from the previous government-controlled fixed into the development of mandatory rules of market economy needs to adapt to the Bill of Quantities methods. from the previous administration direct intervention into law on supervision of project cost effective to strengthen the government's macro-control project cost. In this pricing model, the owners of contractors at the tendering stage for how the conditions according to their own tender offer to make their own profit is not only successful but also most concerned about each competitor.
Key words: engineering bill of quantities Bidding Strategy BQ
how to determine quantities of the tender offer under Chapter Biqi

mmmm With the body of the socialist market economic system, the establishment and development, in particular, August 30, 1999 PRC Tendering and Bidding Law corresponding set of valuation methods and project cost management system. you can say oriented. the state varied widely, all of a sudden into a unified global market. this makes the price formation mechanism works in the past faced severe challenges, forcing us to introduce and follow the international practice of project cost management, that is from the original tender self according to the drawing unit quantities for the tender offer to change the units of quantities (Engineering physical quantity) to tender units offer both conform to the internationally accepted way of competitive bidding, but also solves the and incentive mechanism of market competition mechanism and market competition, the Bill of Quantities construction norms came into being.
construction bill of quantities is an important part of the bidding documents, is a unit of measurement that a certain amount of physical works and documents, bills of quantities is a the design drawings and specifications and technical specifications, etc., into a series of construction projects and project the number of forms. After the implementation of the Bill of Quantities, to achieve the formation of the government pricing to the market price changes []. from the past changes in government-controlled mandatory quotas for the development of market economy needs to adapt to the Bill of Quantities methods. by the direct intervention into the past administration of project cost supervision according to law, strengthen the government's effective macro-control on the project cost []. In this types of pricing model, the owners of It is each competitor can benefit the most concern. the following aspects from the following description.
First, review the list of quantities and calculate the amount of
general construction projects, bidders must bid one list provided by the combination of quantity and press the integrated unit [] in the form of quotations []. tenderer by the tenderer in the bill of quantities provided by the group price, must be caused by the construction program and construction engineering technology increment in the form of a price within the integrated unit. on the review of quantities, can know the amount of the tender to provide the accuracy of the project, if the bidding were allowed to adjust, to a greater error, Q & A will move through the bidding unit adjustments, to obtain consent to make adjustments; if allowed to adjust, you can project a larger error methods to solve by adjusting the unit price; or as the case may be unbalanced bid, or to digest the tender under the premise of the risk of missing items were not be adjusted, then the claim construction process.
tender bill of quantities provided by a sub-segment of the project in the list of quantities, but measures the amount of the project and construction scheme of the project does not provide the tender, bidders must according to the design in the bidding documents and construction design, construction program for the second calculation. so this part of the price quoted in the form of the amount apportioned to be fully taken into account. Since the list is dominated under the lowest bidder the absence of thoughtful losses caused by low bid, the tenderer shall not bear.
Second, the preparation of construction design and construction scheme
construction design and construction program is the tenderer to consider the main factors evaluation, is one of the bidders determine the amount of construction work main basis of its scientific and reasonable evaluation directly affect the purchase and is a major work of the bidding process is rather technical and professional work of high demand, including: Project Overview, project organization, project assurance measures, preparation programs, construction site layout, the total sub-part of the project plan and schedule, sub-segment of the construction technology and construction technology of organizational measures, the main construction machinery configuration, labor allocation, the main material assurance measures, the construction quality assurance measures, safe and civilized measures to ensure the duration measures.
construction design should be considered the main construction method, construction machinery and equipment and configuration, construction progress, quality assurance measures to ensure a safe and civilized measures and duration measures This is not only the engineering characteristics of construction design, the use of advanced science and construction methods, reduce costs, it is necessary to the use of advanced construction methods, arrangements for a reasonable period, but also the full and effective use of machinery, equipment and labor, temporary facilities and funds to minimize occupation, if the same can be made to the tenderer's cheap rationalization proposals, without prejudice to the premise of using the feature to save construction cost for the tenderer, it will greatly improve the low bidder's reasonable to increase the likelihood of winning, but also in the construction design of risk management planning, to guard against risk.
Third, establish and improve the implementation of the inquiry system, the Bill of Quantities
mode, the bidders set prices freely, all with the prices of all relevant release, the Government no longer to intervene in what way can inquire what specific exercise price, which is bidding under the new situation faced by new problems, the bidders in the daily work necessary to establish the price system, the accumulation of part of the labor, materials , Jixietaiban price, in addition, when in the preparation of multi-party tender offer inquiry, the contents of inquiry include: material market price, market price of local labor, machinery and equipment lease price of crude, sub-part of the project sub-price for.
material market price, materials, often in the project cost about 60% of the total cost, a great impact on the offer, which the quotation stage of understanding of the market price of materials and equipment to be very careful, for a construction project, materials are hundreds of different specifications and even thousands, of every kind of material to a limited inquiry for the tender period of time are somewhat unrealistic, the need for multi-party inquiry and comparative analysis, a reasonable choice prices, inquiry methods are: home to the manufacturers or suppliers ask, has the purchase price of construction engineering materials, manufacturers or suppliers of the listing price, the government regularly publish information on prices, all kinds of information the information on the website prices, etc., list mode, pricing, due to the price of materials for organic synthesis, and analyze the future trends in prices of materials, using an integrated approach to predict price changes, the value added to the price of risk into concrete, it can be said that the losses caused by bidding a large part is the risk of errors caused by the prediction for the secondary material, the bidder should be established to store the price of materials, library materials according to market conditions and price analysis to predict the future, with an overall adjustment of the form factor, no interim inquiry .
artificial integrated unit, the only man in the construction industry to create profits, reflecting the level of corporate governance indicators, the level of artificial integrated unit, a direct impact on the cost of the authenticity of the individual bidders and competitive, artificial seasonal internal staff comprehensive level and wage standards, the surface is not necessary inquiry, but must use the average level of society and the local labor wage standards, to determine the level of internal management, and establish a moderate price, it is necessary to ensure the lowest risk, but also has some competitive.
lease price of crude mechanical equipment, machinery and equipment, depreciation and amortization is based on the way into the offer, enter the number quoted is mainly reflected in the utilization of machinery and mechanical equipment, good rates , except machinery and equipment related to the number and engineering, but also with the construction schedule and construction program-related, mechanical equipment lease price inquiry rough analysis can determine that the purchase of machinery or leasing machinery, to ensure the maximum utilization of funds bidders.
sub-inquiry, general contractor bidders generally have their own management strengths with the total package and medium-sized projects, including the engineering design, construction and commissioning, the bidders from the organizational structure of the design and construction. the highly specialized sub-part of the project such as: steel production arrangements, production and installation of curtain walls, elevator installation, special decoration, subcontracted to specialized subcontractors to complete. not only will affect the level of sub-price tender offer and construction plan with bidders and technical measures are directly related to []. So to be able to accurately determine the bidder sub-price quote after using the first sub-strategy, or will cause not reported in the higher standard, reported low the press does not go out in the subcontract price and the phenomenon.
four bids computing
the Bill of Quantities of the total project cost, divided by the quantities some of the project costs, measure project costs, other project costs , fees, taxes composition (the profit is included in the integrated unit within).
tender offer according to the following procedures:
(a), fully understand the tender documents, offer a clear range of
1. quantities Notes should tender, contract conditions, technical specifications and drawings and other documents together to understand or explain []. As a result of the bill of quantities unit price contract, has a specific calculation of the general rules and technical specifications documents, it is often overlooked Contractor will cause great losses.
2. Unless otherwise specified, the quantities in the cost or price, should be understood to have included the implementation and completion of the contract works for the labor, materials, mechanical , quality inspection, installation, management fees, taxes, profits and other costs, and express or implied contract of all duties, obligations and risks.
3. BOQ items are required for each list price or total fill price, bid price or lump-sum did not enter a list of items, the cost will be considered in the allocation of quantities in the unit price or lump-sum in the other.
4. to fully understand the meaning of the name of each list item, Learn the name of the list item content of the work included, so that the integrated unit price quoted is reasonable, the cost of the project to include the list of the contents of each work inside []. if they meet the conditions of contract if the work provided a breakdown is not listed, the cost of will be deemed to have been allocated to the contract works by the total breakdown of the cost or price reasonably comprehensive mid-year report, the cost of the project to be included within the list for each work content, if they meet the terms of the contract if the work requirement is not listed breakdown, the cost will be deemed to have been allocated to the breakdown of the contract works by the unit price or lump-sum among the list of omissions is not generally believed that, while intended as additional requirements in the construction works the other treatment, such Fees must give consideration to the offer.
(b), calculated integrated unit to determine the sub-segment of the construction cost
Firstly, according to the level of or by reference to the drawings and corporate fixed Queding people, materials, machine consumption, followed by Queding people, material, machine price, consider the management fees, profit, risk, comprehensive calculation of unit prices, quantities and then to calculate sub-segment of the construction cost.
implementation of the Bill of Quantities mode, all the full release price-related open, the government is no longer any interference. tenderer must be established in the daily work the price system, the accumulation of part of the labor, materials, Jixietaiban prices. In addition to the preparation of multi-party inquiry when tender offer, the contents of Inquiry including: material market price, market price of local labor, machinery and equipment rental prices, the sub-sub-part of the price of such projects.
materials in construction projects often cost about 70% of the total cost of purchase of very large, so the quotation stage of understanding of the market price of materials and equipment to be very serious. in the list mode, pricing, due to materials price changes over time, particularly large, you can not just look at the prevailing prices of construction materials, must be done on The exercise price of different channels for organic synthesis, and analyze the future trends in prices of materials, using an integrated approach to predict price changes, the risks of specific values added into the price. can be said that the tender price due to a large part of the loss is predicted risk of errors caused.
(c), calculated measures costs: measures cost sub-technical measures and organizational measures charge fees, you can use 1), the formula parameter method, according to a certain base * coefficient, reference may be a fixed fee of the level or self- Definition 2), the fixed pricing method, and sub-segment of the integrated unit similar calculation, such as scaffolding, vertical transportation, 3), the physical volume method to predict the amount of each expense, such as the three experiments fees 4), sub-cost method such as cleaning fee subcontract price reference.
measures proposed by the tender fee list is determined based on the general situation, not consider the individual bidders, the bidders may be based on the actual situation, measures to increase the content of offer items such as samples of fees.
(d), calculating costs of other projects: one part of the non-competitive bidding project, according to the tender to provide the quantity and amount credited, no adjustment. tenderer to provide part of the list according to their own tender offer.
(five ), fees and tax calculation: according to location of the project shall be calculated.
is worth noting that the preparation of construction design and reasonable, and is also closely related to the tender offer.
preparation of construction design is considered when evaluation the tenderer One of the main factors, which affect not only scientific and reasonable to the evaluation, but also affect the competitiveness of quotes.
main consideration construction design construction method, the configuration of mechanical equipment and labor, construction progress, quality assurance measures , safe and civilized construction period to ensure that measures and measures, so not only to the duration of the construction organization, and the project cost and price are closely related. especially the artificial, mechanical, and measures the level of costs and directly related to the preparation of construction design.
V. tender offer bid decision analysis and decision
bidders business decisions is an integral part of guiding the entire process of bidding, the factors that affect the bidding decision-making is very complex, in addition to the bidder bidding the economic decision-making and closely related, it must do to the time, quickly and decisively, the tender bids, mainly from the entire decision-making process is divided into decision-making project analysis, bidding strategies and bid price analysis and decision.
1) Project Analysis and Decision
bidders to decide whether to participate in a project tender, we must first consider the current business situation and long-term business objectives, followed by the bid must have a clear purpose, and then analyze the possibility of winning factors.
construction market is a buyer's market, highly competitive bidding, bidders choose Bidder or room is very small, there is more or less the case of operating conditions is not full. In general, as long as the person receiving the tender invitation to tender, the contractor is a positive response to bid, it is mainly based on the following consider, first of all, participants and more tender, more chance of winning; Secondly, often participate in the tender, the opportunity to appear before the public is also more able to play the role of advertising; Third, through participation in the tender, can gain experience and master market conditions, collect information to understand the usual strategy of competitors; fourth bidder who refused to tender invitation to tender, may undermine their own credibility, and thus lose the opportunity after the receipt of invitation to tender.
course, there is a theory is that the strength of the bidder should bid invitation, select those with high probability of winning, small project bidding risk. the fight for the bidding strategy, but in the fierce market competition is difficult to achieve.
bidders after receiving the invitation to tender, the general attitude of not taking bids rejected. but sometimes the price of the bidder also received a number of invitations to tender, the tender offer resources limited, in order of priority in the tender if the average allocation of resources, then the probability of winning each and every project is very low, then the contractor should be directed to analyze the characteristics of each project, a reasonable allocation of the tender of resources. tendering resources in general can be understood as the preparation of tender and computer tools, and other resources, different projects require different amount of resource input, the same resources at different times in different projects have different values. For example: the same bidder in the tender bid higher value civil engineering However, winning bidders in the industrial building to a lower value, which is the construction by the bidder's business ability and cost of staff expertise and experience in tendering and other factors of the decision. bidders must accumulate a lot of empirical data, summarize and dynamic through the analysis to determine the optimal minimum bid of different resources, engineering input, the optimal bid by the smallest amount of resources into the analysis, you can choose the tender. its a lot of resources invested, the probability of winning is still very low, it should be decisively abandoned to avoid waste of resources in the tender.
2)
tender bidding strategy, according to the operating conditions of the bidder and business objectives, it is necessary to consider their own strengths and weaknesses, but also consider the intensity of competition, but also of The general features of the tender, according to the type of project and construction conditions to determine bidding strategies.
(1) Survival
bidding strategies, such as tender offer in order to overcome the crisis of survival as the goal for winning, you can not take into account other factors , due to social, political and economic environment changes and the bidder's own poor management, the bidder may result in the crisis of survival, first in this crisis due to economic reasons, reduction of the tender; Second, the government adjusted the direction of investment in infrastructure, Some bidders make good reduction projects, which promote the crisis is often harmful to the business professional engineering a single bidder; Third, if the bidder poor management, there will be fewer and fewer invitations to tender crisis, when Bidders should survive as the most important, to take no profit or even lose money but also championship attitude, as long as the tide over temporarily to survive, there will be hope of a comeback.
(2) competitive bidding bidding strategy
competition as a means to open up the market, low profitability as the goal, in the precise calculation of costs based on estimates of the competitor's offer fully objective, with a competitive offer to the purpose of winning bidders in the following situations shall take the competitive bidding strategy, business depressed, recently received the invitation to bid less threatening competitors, trying to break into new areas, explore new types of construction, the tender risk, construction technology Simple, engineering a large amount of social good project, near the company of other projects under construction.
(3) profit-based bidding strategy bidding
this strategy is to give full play to its own advantages, to achieve the best earnings as the target, smaller projects benefit not enthusiastic, full of larger projects on earnings confidence [], the following situations can offer profit-based strategies, such as the tender has been opened in the region, situation, construction capacity saturation high degree of credibility, fewer competitors, who have the technological advantage and strong brand name bidding effect, the main objective of the tender is to expand its influence, or poor construction, difficult, bad conditions of disbursement of funds, time and quality requirements harsh, as the coalition partners to accompany subject matter projects.
3) analysis and decision
tender offer made after the initial offer should be quoted in various aspects of this analysis, the analysis was to investigate the offer is reasonable, competitive, profitability and risk, thus making the final purchase decision. analysis method can be static analysis and dynamic analysis of two aspects.
(1) Quote of the static analysis
first initial offer is a reasonable assumption, analysis of quotations rationality of the composition and analysis steps are as follows:
 Analysis Division summary of the book prices figures, and calculate the proportion of indicators.
a total construction area of statistics and the individual building area.
b Statistics total cost of materials and of the principal amount and classification of materials, total, calculate the total cost of materials per unit area of indicators and the main indicators of material consumption and costs were measured to calculate the proportion of material costs account for purchase.
c statistic total labor costs and key workers, support the number of workers and managers, according to quotes, schedule, construction area and the total number of statistical man-days of employment per unit area calculated the number of labor cost per unit area, and calculate the required completion period, the production workers and The average person-months full value and output value of person-years to calculate the proportion of labor costs of the total purchase.
d statistics cost of temporary works, machinery and equipment use fees, scaffolding charges, fees and tools, vertical transportation costs, calculate the lower their the proportion of the total price, and the proportion of acquisition costs were accounted for, that is apportioned to the form of amortization of the cost of the project after the end of the residual value and engineering.
e statistical summary of the number of types of management fees, calculated their total purchase the proportion of calculating profit, on behalf of the paragraph and the proportion of the total number of interest.
f if the offer were deliberately increased by some risk factor, can be classified as hidden profit potential profits or proposed for discussion.
Statistics total sub-project and the sub-subcontractor price quotes and to calculate the total bidders their proportion of the direct costs of construction and to calculate the total sub-subcontractors accounted for the proportion of the sub- package of direct costs, indirect costs and profit.
 quote from the macro analysis of the structure is reasonable, for example, of the total labor costs, material costs, the total number of Jixietaiban fees and the ratio between the total management costs, labor fees and the ratio between the village materials fee, facility fee and the fee of the total labor costs Jixietaiban, materials, machinery cost ratio of the total count of the number of the ratio between profits and the ratio between the total purchase to determine the composition of the existence of quotations Certain factors are not comparable, if not comparable factors deducted after the offer is still the irrational structure of the situation, they should go into its causes in depth and to consider appropriate adjustments to some of the labor, materials, Jixietaiban unit price, fixed content and sharing system.
 explore the relationship between duration and the offer, according to schedule and pricing, calculated on the output value, the output value, from the perspective of the practical experience of the bidder to determine the index is too high or too low, the duration should be considered rationality.
 Analysis of price and amount of labor per unit area, the reasonableness of the use of materials star, the light of practical experience in the construction of similar projects. If this works and similar projects are not comparable with some of the factors that exclude certain non-comparable factors after analysis and comparison, and explore the reasonableness of the offer.
 offer of patently unreasonable for the micro component of the analysis of inspection. focus on efficiency from the alert and change the construction plan, adjust the duration, depressed the supplier and subcontractor prices, saving management costs and other aspects of possible measures. and fix the initial purchase, measure out another low offer solutions based on the best offer the program to compile comparative analysis of data submitted to offer decision-makers or decision-making within the group discussion .
(2) offer dynamic analysis
by assuming that changes in certain factors, estimates the impact of purchase offer, the larger the risk of project work content, the use of extended price, the cost of increased risk approach to risk reduction .
such a variety of risks could lead to schedule delays, not only can not claim, and may be fined, as an extension of time may take to increase the liquidity and interest, management fees increase accordingly, wage costs have also increased, machinery equipment use of the cost increases, this increase can only be used to reduce the expenditure part of the profits to make up, so that duration can be measured by several long delays in complete loss of profits.
(3) Price quotation decision making
 basis. as a basis for decision-making should be the main data bidders own cost calculation and analysis of indicators of staff. As for other means of so-called tender's ;, etc., only as a general reference. In tender competition, often leaked information base price or spying on opponents, etc., but those who have deceived many, offer decision-makers often do not experience too much faith in the intelligence from various sources, and use it as the main basis for decision-making offer, and some brokers to master the final design of the file contents vary widely, there is no value in use. Sometimes, some people use the tender spread middlemen so-called ; base bid price care fall into the trap will be left behind competitors.
bidders participate in the tender bid of course want to, but more important is the basic bid price should be reasonable, should not lead to a loss. to offer their own data based on scientific analysis, and then make the appropriate decision-making bid was reported, at least not blindly fall into the trap of market competition.
 offer reasons for the differences. Although the implementation of the Bill of Quantities, is a free group by the price of the bidder, But generally speaking, the bidder on the tender offer method of calculation is the basis of similar cost engineer price information is also similar. Therefore, theoretically, the bid price the bidder's base bid with the bid price should be not far off, Why do they appear in the actual bidding many differences do, in addition to the obvious miscalculation, such as counting, misunderstanding of tender documents, intended to give competition sweeping the highest bidder, the bid price difference there are the following basic reasons.
a pursuit of profit than others. Some people are eager bidders bid to survive the situation, have lower profit margins, not even taking into account the profits in good condition and some bidders do not seek an urgent bid, so the pursuit of profit than high.
b each have different strengths. Some bidders have idle equipment and materials, some bidders have strong capital, and some bidders have many excellent management talents.
c choice different construction program. For medium to large projects and special projects, the construction cost of the program's choice of a greater impact, excellent construction program, including the progress of reasonable arrangement, degree of mechanization, the right choice, optimization, project management, can significantly reduce construction costs, thereby reducing the purchase.
d difference between administrative costs. state-owned enterprises and collective enterprises, the old business and new enterprises, the project site enterprises and foreign enterprises, large enterprises and small and medium enterprises management fees The difference is relatively large because I am under cost element in the list will show the individual costs of bidders, the difference between the cost of individual will become more apparent.
 between profits and risks in decision making. As complex tendering, pricing is not the same situation encountered, it is difficult anticipate. Generally speaking, decision-making is not the intervention cost engineers offer specific terms, but should be by the decision makers together with the cost engineer on a variety of Quote proper analysis of the factors, and make decisive decisions  . In order to put forward a variety of pricing options, price, cost, validation and sharing coefficient is equal to the necessary amendments to policy makers is more important to fully consider the expected profit and risk, risk and profits exist in the project, the key is the bidder should be avoided as much as possible greater risk transfer to take measures to prevent trade-off between risk and profit and to make a choice.
 make decisions based on quantities. In fact, the tender offer in the tender documents of quantities, is the joint trial according to the construction drawings have not been prepared in the drawings and specifications, the bidder with the progress of the works after winning often occur design changes, due to design changes that occur the price will change accordingly, and sometimes tender quantities in check, we will find that there are omissions and wrong quantities considered the phenomenon of consolidation for calculation of unit price for the bidders inconvenience, increased the risk of bidding. However, in the bidding, the bidder must be in strict accordance with the requirements of the tenderer, if the bidder without change, to reduce the tender the human condition. So, the tender will refuse to accept the bidder's bid. So , experienced bidders who bid even if the confirmation of quantities wrong item, omissions, construction process will be a change in the tender conditions and the risk of a huge hidden, it will not change or reduce the positive condition, but to use imbalance of human errors in the tender offer and other skills. To leave a hint after winning a claim, or the use of detail, additional explanations very carefully add the tender tips of people pay attention to certain conditions, reduce the risk of bidders.
 low-BID decisions. the list is the implementation of low-priced offer after winning an important factor, but cheap to say , to ensure the expected profit and risk on the basis of certain considerations to determine the minimum cost. Therefore, the decision-makers in determining when the final offer cautious, low-cost, though important. but not offer the only factor, in addition to low pricing, the decision-makers strategy or skill can take over rival bidders. tenderers may propose to reduce the investment people make the rationalization of the tender or the tender proposal in favor of some concessions to compensate for the shortage was reported high.
six commonly used bidding strategies
Price is one of the conditions determining the winning bidder, but not the only condition, in general, the duration, quality, social prestige under the same conditions, the tender to select the lowest bid for the good [11]. enterprises can not simply pursue lowest , and project evaluation criteria should be determined by their own conditions of high and low factor price quoted on the full account of the strategy.