Crazy Stock Market - U.S. stocks century

 (U.S. stock market the Dow Jones Industrial Index in Figure centuries, but also a witness to the history of the greedy graph.)
Why the stock market value of the support needed? Look at the three U.S. stock market crash in history, you know the danger of the present height of China's stock market.
primitive accumulation of each period of the stock market, are a pile of dirty greed and blood. the United States that China is no exception.
2000, we saw the NASDAQ from 5000 o'clock high dive. the price is crazy high-tech stocks after a major adjustment for up to 6 years, until today, is satisfied that City still hovering around 2000.
Links A: From the U.S. stock market history of Chinese stock market continued for a long time to adjust
up to 4 years of the current bear market for many Chinese investors frightened, almost all investors have lost confidence, and even a desperate situation. At this point, all languages are redundant, we only need to look at the history of the U.S. stock market to be able to understand our position, and we judge the future of China's stock market will greatly benefit.
the U.S. stock market (Dow Jones index for reference only) history, the two biggest adjustments were in 1929 - 1932 and 1937-1942 years. the adjustment, respectively 90% and 53%. Since then, there have been no more than 50% of the adjustment. Today, the Chinese stock market's current round of adjustment has been close to 50% Therefore, we will focus on reference to the experience of these two adjustments.
one, the first great history of the U.S. stock market bear market
one of the biggest bear market in 1929 after the economic crisis in September 1929, the Dow Jones index reached 386 The high point of beginning the month after the fall, in October appeared to fall, the lowest point of 212 points in November and then fell 195 points, equivalent to three-month index fell nearly 50% .1930 In April, the stock market bounced back to 297 points counter, B is a typical wave form, many people still think that the bull market is not over yet, the results of the stock market began to fall again, to July 1932, the stock market fell 40.56 points, before declaring the bottom, a rebound in the month.
this the U.S. stock market one of the biggest ever recorded adjustments. time lasted 35 months, nearly 3 years. in the annual K line, 1929,1930,1931,1932 years are Yin Xian, Yinxian received four consecutive years, is the U.S. stock market unique time in history. Index is the largest decline of 90%, only a fraction of the final.
China's stock market has a similar situation .1993 February, the Shanghai index reached 1558 points after falling in 1994 August has reached 325 points, only one and a half hours, but the index decline was 80%. the best indicator of the time factor is the Shenzhen Component Index, bottomed out in January 1996, adjusted time is 35 months. in time with exactly 3 years.
from the time factor and the spatial factors, the adjustment of China's stock market 1993-1996 1929-1932 with the U.S. stock market years of adjustment similar: both are 35 months or a decrease of 80% of all above. This adjustment reflects the initial stage of the two basic characteristics of the stock market: rises and falls. For example, the Dow Jones 30 industrial stock price index in October 1, 1928 began the preparation, the stock market peaked one year after the crash. on Shanghai Composite Index opening at the May 1992 price index peaked in February 1993 to plunge.
II, the second major adjustment
the second largest U.S. stock market is due for a long time to adjust prices After the inevitable adjustment of .1932 in July, the U.S. stock market began to rise, to March 1937 reached the highest 195 points, compared to the previous low of 40.56 points, up nearly 4 times the bull market of the time close to 5 years mm54 months. With the start of World War II, the U.S. stock market started to decline. in just a year, in March 1938 fell to 97.5 points, just 50% down. It fell with three months of 1929 compared to half the speed, it is clear more slowly.
1938 and 1939, the index back to 150 points or more twice, to no avail, and from August 1941 began to experience a continuous decline of the wonders of 9 months, in April 1942, the index fell 92.69 points. relative to the previous 195 points, the index actually fell 52.8%. bear market duration is over 5 years, 61 months. In the years online, the performance for the 1937 income Yinxian, 1938 closing 阳线,1939 -1942 Yinxian consecutive 3-year closing form.
Since then, the U.S. stock market entered a long-term bull market. from a low of just 4 years after launch, in May 1946, the stock market broke a record 200 new high of 213 points , followed by high stock market correction of 3 years to June 1949 to reach 160 points, but 20% of the index fell a little more. Since then, the index rose for 11 consecutive months, 229 new high point of .1953, the index of nearly 300 points .1966 years, reaching 1000 .1974, after nearly 8 years of sideways, the index fell 570 points, completed a long-term arrangement, since the main access to the largest upward move mm1987 reach 2746 points in August, two months after the fall 1616 points, continue upward, in January 2000 to reach 11,908 points in October .2002, adjusted to 7181 points. Today, the Dow Jones index is still hovering around 10,000 points.
be pointed out that the U.S. stock market's second revision is the same with the Chinese stock market has a very similar place in January In 1996, China's stock market starting from 512 points up, to June 2001 reached 2245 points, the index rose 3.38 times, the rise and the U.S. stock market was very similar to 4 times . time is 65 months, more than the U.S. stock market bull market for nearly a year. that time, China's stock market bull market longer, but the magnitude was smaller.
assume China's stock market future stock market according to the situation with the United States adjustment, we can determine, the adjustment time is not more than 5 years, adjusting the rate is roughly 50%.
time, at present, the Shanghai index has been closed for 5 years Yinxian. this year since the stock market began to adjust the fifth year. which in 2001 received Yin Xian, Yang Xian in 2002, 2003,2004 are Yinxian .2005 in the first four months is Yinxian. With the U.S. stock market's low point of the second adjustment is the first five years there , we have reason to believe that this major adjustment for 4 years must be the lowest point in 2005, not 2006.
As for space, the Shenzhen Composite Index 278, the lowest point of the current point relative to its highest point of 665 points, has dropped 58%. Shanghai stock market, the highest point of 2245, the current index of the lowest 1146 points, or nearly 50%. Assuming 1125 Shanghai stock market reached the lowest point, you need to fall further down from the current minimum 2 % or so.
three major adjustment in stock markets the world
other we can learn from, as well as Nasdaq.
1984, the Nasdaq was founded, followed lasted 16 year bull market, the index 237 points from 5132 points in 2000 rushed to the index rose as high as 20 times. During this period, the Nasdaq index only in 1987, 1990 and 1994, the year appears small Yinxian, slightly adjusted, the other side the time has been upward.
2000, the Nasdaq index since the peak of drastic adjustment, then to fall 2288 points, or up to 60% of the 2002 year, the index minimum 1108 points, the highest point relative to 3-year decrease of 78%. the magnitude and the Shanghai index dropped back 325 points from 1558 points (79% decrease year and a half) compared to very close. Today, the Nasdaq index back above 2000 points, the performance is relatively mild. It appears that any market, in its early stages of development, rises and falls are inevitable, regardless of how the historical environment in which it is.
but the decline to reach seems to be an but rebounded in 1996 to 22,957 points, the stock market continued to fall, actually fell in 2003, .14 years 7603 points, down is how much? 80%.
view of this, the end of a super bull market, the stock market created initial decline, 80% is a basic requirement, but the timing is not strictly required. For example, the Taiwan stock market in February 1990 reached a record high of 12,424 points, compared to 421 in 1982 points, or nearly 30 times . Subsequently, in October 1990 fell 2560 points to the index fall 79%. Despite the huge drop but only 8 months after a short period of time. but actually that low for a minimum of 10 years, after never then touch. Taiwan's stock market also in 1997 and 2000 onto the 10,000-point mark twice.
IV, Conclusion: The Chinese stock market bull market is about to begin
being the case, China's stock market has been a major adjustment historic .1993-1996 passed a major adjustment period, the Shanghai index's biggest decline has reached 79%, when the Shenzhen index (element index for reference) also fell from 3422 points 924 points, or 73%. two an exponential decline tells us that the Chinese stock market start-up phase of the maximum adjustment is over. the future, if also a big adjustment, except in the bull market after a super crazy, but this bull market, we have thus far not experienced.
In other words, we face the current bear market, which is still rising phase of the normal fall, the rate of 80% should not be such a limit, such as the U.S. stock market that may, after 50% of the adjusted bottom, in time , you may extend 5 years.
view of this, China's stock market began a major adjustment in 2001, this adjustment in 2005 will be the fifth year since the declaration of the end of the year in the future will enter the long-term bull market. < br> So, a major adjustment of the limit is wrong? to space to see, roughly near 1125 on the Shanghai Composite Index, up and down should not exceed 100 points, the limit will not fall 1025 points (the equivalent of index fell 54%) under .
only, from the time point of view, this round of adjustment has so far been 47 months, in theory, less than a bull market, when launched, are more likely to enter the big bull market of the time should be 55 months to 60 months time still need to wait.
Thus, midline point of view, we can say that the end of bear market occurred in 2005, will be the starting point of the bull market in early 2006 or the first half. starting position will be 1025-1125 points.
Appendix 2: 1792 U.S. stock market 100 years, 24 Wall Street New York, a broker in New York under an agreement Kewutongshu, agreed later in the day, the stock and other securities transactions .1817 year, the increasingly active market, so the participants formed the New York Stock Exchange at .1863 year, it officially changed its name to the New York Stock Exchange. This is the origin of the U.S. stock market. 1882, Tao (Dow) and Friends Jones (Jones) 15 Wall Street, founded in Dow Jones & Company, and close to the New York Stock Exchange, .1884, the Road was the first to attempt to calculate the change in stock price index, when the samples are using the railway company, which is the later of the Road Jones transportation average (DJIA) .1889 years, said the Wall Street Journal .1896 personally founded on May 26, said the first time calculated and released the Dow Jones industrial average (DJIA), on the day index 40.94.1929 The Dow Jones utilities average was born In 1992 DJUA index, the Dow Jones Composite average (DJCA) was born. In recent years, Dow Jones has created a relatively independent across the globe more than 3000 stock index, known collectively as the Dow Jones Global Index (DJGI). However, in the Dow Jones stock index all of the above, only the Dow Jones industrial average is the most important, it is not only the most important of today's U.S. stock index, but also the world's most influential stock index. So , both as a barometer of the U.S. economy, but also a barometer of the world economy. It is generally referred to as the Dow Jones industrial average Dow Jones Index (hereinafter referred to as identified as the Dow Jones index of set for the 20 sample stocks; sample stocks in 1928 will eventually be fixed at 30. Even today, the Dow is still 30 sample stocks. At present the 30 samples were mainly taken from the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ Stock Market.
In order to adapt to technological progress and market development needs, the Dow 30 stocks are no longer limited to traditionally defined industrial stocks, the Dow now has covered the entire sample the best in the U.S. blue chip stocks, and includes financial services , technology, retail, entertainment and consumer goods and other industries. as a sample, they are the industry leader or representative of each of these constituents have the most extensive individual and institutional investors .2005 by the end of the 30 constituent stocks of the Dow Total market value of the total U.S. equity market capitalization as high as 23.8%.
100 years, the Dow is calculated with its unique patent, leading to the blue chips as samples, indomitable spirit, from the calculation to ensure uninterrupted Dow hundred years of consistency and comparability. This is the Dow and a strong flavor of the times, the same time, it is more historical value to record the history of the U.S. stock market a century, research and thinking for future generations.
thousands of U.S. Road Siqiong index points
thousand point level for the time-consuming and Statistics point level for the first time to break thousands of thousands of points accumulated time-consuming interval
1000 1972 年 11 月 14 日 76 years 76 2000 January 8, 1987 90 years 14 years 3000 17 April 1991 94 4 years
4000 February 23, 1995 98 years 4 years
5000 1995 年 11 月 21 日 99 years and 9 months
6000 1996 年 10 月 14 day 100 years and 11 months
7000 1997 年 2 月13, 101 years and 4 months
8000 1997 年 7 月 16 日 101 years and 5 months
9000 1998 年 4 月 6 日 102 years and 9 months
10000 1999 年 3 月 29 日 12 103 years months
11000 1999 年 5 月 3 日
103 years and 1 month for a 30 years of the Great Depression day, the Dow (DJIA) 40.94 points from a difficult start. After 30 years of ups and downs, the Dow slow U.S. stock market experienced a U.S. overseas military expansion, World War, Coolidge Prosperity three , from 40 to nearly 400 points, the Dow 33 years to go.
After a storm, getting too much. While the American people immersed in the prosperity and happiness is not difficult to extricate themselves when a major crisis rarely seen in history is quietly approaching the American people on October 28 1929 EST on Monday, the morning opening soon, the Dow plunged more than, the day to close at 260 points, day drop of 12.82%. This is America afraid of the one. refers to the accompanying 1929--1933 the Great Depression more than all the way down, has fallen to 30 June 1932 ended 43 points.
40 points from starting around 33 years rose 400 points, followed by only two and a half time will plunge to the , vaguely like a dream.
Second, recast foundation: 40 years later, the Dow broke 1,000 points in the first 30 years of the 20th century after the Great Depression, Americans from the the legal system and macro-control. As the saying goes control, including the strengthening of financial legislation, sub-sector management, interest rate controls, deposit insurance, and other initiatives. This has the advantage: the high-risk financial industry, particularly tight control on the securities market, there is help to curb financial speculation, inhibition of the financial bubble, conducive to consolidation of the financial order, which effectively control the financial risks.
the other hand, successful implementation of Roosevelt's New Deal and World War II, the United States from and the synchronization of economic strength and military strength increased. from the early 50s, the U.S. economy completely out of the br> As the U.S. economy, all the way, as an economic barometer of the Dow be up .1956 on May 12, the Dow first broke 500 points mark. from Dow birth date, from 40 am to 500 points, the Dow went exactly 60 years. This should be regarded as the Dow 60 years to 60 years of suffering, the experience of the glory of it from birth to death, then rebirth. the tortuous process also taught how Americans view speculation, how to be responsible for their speculation. Of course, the most important is that it will introduce a strict U.S. stock market to a new climax. The climax was marked by the end of November 14, 1972, the Dow first broke 1000 points. This is the Dow's first onwards, it took a full 40 years beyond its first This is indeed the cornerstone of a thousand points of solid enough.
However, the cyclical fluctuations of the inevitable law of the market economy. After World War II, the U.S. economy after more than 20 years of rapid growth, the economic bubble and inflation expansion has been accumulated to a considerable extent. to the time to stop breathing, so, from the early 70s, the U.S. economy has entered an unprecedented Before the mid-70s, the U.S. interest rates as high as 15% or more. To do this, just thousands of Dow points near the crash are also facing a huge test of .1974 at the end, early 1975, the Dow plummeted 550 points was the top, almost eaten since 1956, victories. Fortunately, since the Great Depression, the U.S. stock market has been in tight control of the state, the faster the bubble and risk to solve successfully.
1976 year-end, thousands of points on the Dow to return to . But the U.S. economy has not really improved, therefore, the Dow quickly returned to a thousand points below from 1977 - 1982 5 years, Dow has been above 800 points, 1,000 points for a narrow range of finishing under . From 1972 - 1982 of 10 years, in addition to the turn of 1974 and 1975, there have been a short fall, the other time points were maintained at more than 800 runs, which should once again prove that the U.S. stock market in the stern of the ; effectiveness under.
three, the second index began to rise. When at the end, the Dow once again firmly stand on the 1,000-point mark the end of .1985, the Dow topped 1,500. from 1000 to 1500 points across, the Dow took 13 years. then all the way to soaring, January 8, 1987, the Dow first broke 2000 mark.
1987 年 10 19, is a 22.61%, the Dow closed the day before at the close of 2246.74 points dropped 1738.74 points. This day drop in the Dow ranked the second highest ever. U.S. outbreak of the . But the end of the year, the Dow regained 2,000 points.
stock market crash of near misses this time, should be mainly attributed to three factors:
First, the U.S. economy's rapid recovery and growth, and international economic situation improvement.
Second, the effectiveness of the U.S. stock market early control; Dow spent 76 years in 1000 has the following One of the reasons. The Dow first broke 1,000 points, only two back to the exploration of the records; 1500 is a one-time passed, there has never been any repeat; 2000 points only in the 1987 and 1988, there have been two brief repeated . This is the U.S. stock market leading listed companies, must have excellent investment value. Therefore, a large number of world-class company, is a mainstay of the U.S. stock market, the investment value of their good enough to defuse the stock market bubble and speculative risk.
80 end of the decade, the Dow continued to maintain the upward trend. It should be said, the Dow and the U.S. stock market to grow together and continue to grow, this not only due to the success of market supervision, the main reasons is the leading listed companies, leading investment value to investors and market share growth and prosperity of the national economy.
Fourth, the growth in continue to the end of the inertial force, and continue to clearance.
1991 年 4 17, the Dow first broke 3000;
1995 年 2 23, the Dow first broke 4,000 points;
1995 年 11 21 May, the Dow first broke 5000;
1996 年 10 14, the Dow first broke 6,000 points;
1997 年 2 13, the Dow first broke 7,000 points;
1997 年July 16, the Dow first broke 8000;
1998 年 4 6, the Dow first broke 9,000;
1999 年 3 29, the Dow first broke 10,000 points mark.
January 14, 2000, the Dow hit a historic high, 11,723 points.
the year 2001, point sustained more than 100 monthly rise, the bubble seemed to feel it, but its rise has been overblown. Thus, the normal technical correction begins. continuous beneath the Dow 11,000 and 10,000 point mark, and on March 20, 2001 straight to 9721 points. While the U.S. stock market technical correction to the critical point position, so that most Americans do not believe the big event, and this is September 11, 2001 in the United States, terrorist attacks. As the U.S. led war in Afghanistan the Taliban achieved complete victory, the stock market sentiment began to re-gather, the Dow on March 19, 2002 to a million points, up to 10,635 points. but obviously the U.S. economy began to decline, especially in the second quarter of 2002, the economic downturn trend is more obvious. Thus, resulting in the second half of the Dow from 2002 to under three times between early 2003 through 8000. But with the U.S. economy gradually pick up, the end of 2003, the Dow is 10000 points back on the fast end of 2005, again driven a 11,000 .2006 May 9, to close at 11,640 points, its highest point from the point one step 11723.
This is the U.S. stock market, a worldwide , the global stock market! its growth is 200 years of experience, its growth is definitely not grow further, it is clear from the Dow 40 points, step by step, and practical it is to be responsible for future generations.
why the stock market value of the support needed? look at the three U.S. stock market crash in history, you know the danger of the present height of China's stock market.
every stock market period of primitive accumulation, is a pile of dirty greed and blood. the United States that China is no exception.
2000, we saw the NASDAQ from 5000 o'clock high dive. crazy high-tech stocks after the price is a major adjustment for up to 6 years, until today, is satisfied that City still hovering around 2000.
Links A: From the U.S. stock market history stock market adjustment
Chinese up to 4 years duration for the current bear market China scared many investors, almost all investors have lost confidence, and even a desperate situation. At this point, all languages are redundant, we only need to look at the history of the U.S. stock market to be able to understand where we are location, for us to determine the future of China's stock market will greatly benefit.
the U.S. stock market (Dow Jones index for reference only) history, the two biggest adjustments were in place in 1929-1932 and 1937-1942 years. The adjustment, respectively 90% and 53%. Since then, there have been no more than 50% of the adjustment. Today, the Chinese stock market's current round of adjustment has been close to 50%, so we will focus on the reference to these two experience of the revision.
one, the first great history of the U.S. stock market bear market
one of the biggest bear market in 1929 after the economic crisis in September 1929, the Dow Jones index reached a high of 386 points after the month began to fall, October appeared to fall, the lowest point of 212 points in November and then fell 195 points, equivalent to three months, nearly 50% .1930 index fell in April, the stock market bounced back to 297 points, is a typical form of B-wave counter, Many people still think that the bull market is not over yet, the results of the stock market began to fall again, to July 1932, the stock market fell 40.56 points, before declaring the bottom, a rebound in the month.
U.S. stock market is the largest ever recorded an adjustment. time lasted 35 months, nearly 3 years. in the annual K line, 1929,1930,1931,1932 years are Yin Xian, Yinxian received four consecutive years is unprecedented in the history of the U.S. stock market again. Index of the largest decreases 90%, only a fraction of the final.
China's stock market has a similar situation .1993 February, the Shanghai index reached 1558 points after falling in August 1994 reached 325 points, the time only one and a half, but the index decline was 80%. the best indicator of the time factor is the Shenzhen Component Index, bottomed out in January 1996, adjusted time is 35 months. just in time is 3 years.
From the time factor and spatial factors, the adjustment of China's stock market 1993-1996 1929-1932 with the U.S. stock market years of adjustment similar: both are 35 months down, down is 80%. This adjustment reflects the the initial stage of the two basic characteristics of the stock market: rises and falls. For example, the Dow Jones 30 industrial stock price index in October 1, 1928 began the preparation, the stock market peaked one year after the crash. The Shanghai Composite Index released in May 1992 open price index peaked in February 1993 to plunge.
II, the second major adjustment
the second largest U.S. stock market is due for a long time to adjust up the inevitable adjustment of .1932 after 7 years month, the U.S. stock market began to rise, to March 1937 reached the highest 195 points, compared to the previous low of 40.56 points, up nearly 4 times the bull market of the time close to 5 years mm54 months. With the start of World War II, the U.S. stock market started to decline. in just a year, in March 1938 fell 97.5 points to, just dropped by 50%. This is like three months of 1929 compared to half the speed down, apparently much slower.
1938 and 1939, the index back to 150 points or more twice, to no avail, and from August 1941 began to experience a continuous decline of the wonders of 9 months, in April 1942, the index fell 92.69 points. relative to the previous 195 points, the index actually fell 52.8%. bear market duration is over 5 years, 61 months. In the years online, the performance for the 1937 income Yinxian, 1938, Yang Xian ,1939 -1942 received 3 consecutive years the form of income Yinxian.
Since then, the U.S. stock market entered a long-term bull market. starts from the low of just 4 years, in May 1946, the stock market broke a record 200 new high of 213 points, followed by the stock market correction of the 3-year high to June 1949 to reach 160 points, but 20% of the index fell a little more. Since then, the index rose for 11 consecutive months, 229 new high point of .1953, the index of nearly 300 points .1966, .1974 on 1,000 points After nearly 8 years of sideways, the index fell 570 points, completed a long-term arrangement, since the main access to the largest upward move mm1987 reach 2746 points in August, two months later fell to 1616 points, to continue upward, 2000 January 2002 year to reach 11,908 points in October, adjusted to 7181 points. Today, the Dow Jones index is still hovering around 10,000 points.
be pointed out that the U.S. stock market adjustment and the second unit in China ...