Agricultural Bank of China (601,288, stock it) Huxin Zhi, general manager of strategic management in the In the run-in and are expected before the Spring Festival will not use, so now a unified tone.
first shot for the New Year's central bank, the Central University of Finance and Bank of China (601988, stock it) industry research center in micro-Bo Guo Tian Yong said, the central bank again raised the deposit reserve ratio, is intended to be flexible management of liquidity to prevent the re-emergence of bank credit in early blowout situation.
Standard Chartered Bank, judgments, interest rates three times this year, will be completed in July, whether it should raise interest rates in the second half, as the first half of the control effect will be.
Li Wei believes that there is no hard and fast deposit rate of the ratio of quasi-standard, as long as the excess reserve rate is still 2.5% higher than the statutory deposit reserve ratio can be increased.
Hu Xinzhi said, the increase in the recycling of about 3000 to 330 billion of funds in the short term will not have much impact on the bank, but the policy direction was to make more rational credit banks cautious. The future can be transferred to the deposit reserve ratio of 21% or more, they judge the future there are 3 to 5 times 50 BP adjustment.
not rule out raising interest rates before and after the Spring Festival
no doubt that this increase is only the beginning of a series of actions the central bank this year. Future measures to be adopted by the central bank raised market speculation.
According to the But this does not mean that a rate hike warning lifted, although some experts believe that short-term interest rates need not, but there are still some experts said that does not rule out the possibility of a rate hike around the Spring Festival, depending on the introduction of the 2010 next week December CPI situation, the latest price trends, and the upcoming release of GDP data.
prospective rate increase storage space still exist
reserve for future rate adjustments, experts say, space is still relatively large.
Earlier, the central bank said the 2011 work meeting to Perhaps too much pressure on credit growth.
Hu Xinzhi said the central bank is facing pressure on liquidity management. He pointed out that in December 2010 new foreign exchange 403.3 billion, at historically high levels; 12 at the end of M2 growth rate reached 19.7%, higher than 17% in early 2010 target. In addition, the central bank's control means are subject to certain constraints, He believes that open market operations, net invest 45 billion this week to play a limited role.
Li Wei that the prospective increase deposit rates, does not mean an alert to lift interest rates in January, the introduction of the CPI continues to look at the situation next week, and the GDP data. He said the central bank will not be based solely on the December CPI situation to determine whether to raise interest rates, but also take into account price trends since January, according to Standard Chartered's observation, the first week of the New Year have shown rising trend in food prices, continue to rise next week if the central bank pressure will be relatively large. In addition, if a higher GDP data, then there will be greater support for the central bank to raise interest rates.
Standard Chartered Bank global research economist Li Wei believes that the standard deposit rate increase was chosen, partly because the fast loan growth in January, Standard Chartered Bank will be in January to determine the credit to no more than 1.3 trillion; addition, the current Strong Tendency inter-bank liquidity, such as 7 days repurchase rate has been falling for several days, when prospective rate increase will not keep the interbank market have a major impact.
Strong Tendency response to liquidity conditions
Hu Xinzhi also said that January is unlikely to raise interest rates, he believes that the future liquidity of the central bank will focus on monitoring the situation, concerned about the CPI, the overall monitoring of bank credit, and then decide which tools, running too fast, the central bank will use the deposit reserve ratio difference, if prices rose too fast to raise interest rates.
Cao Yuan Zheng also said,
According to the
However, Lu political commissar of the view that, in January rate hike is unlikely, because there is no urgent necessity, he expects to add 4 to 5 times income, the future regulation of the central bank will use a variety of tools .
Guo Tian Yong view, the increase in deposit rates to avoid potential inflation expectations are prone to pre-holiday strength of the situation, but still can not rule out the central bank rate hike around the Spring Festival.
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Industrial Bank (601166, stock it), political commissar, senior economist Lu previous report that in 2011 the statutory reserve ratio may eventually raised to about 23%. He judged that the increase can absorb close to 400 billion fund, to avoid inappropriate incentives to banks, but the impact may be relatively mild on the loans.
Cao Yuan Zheng, chief economist at BOC International Holdings Limited also told reporters that the central bank is expected to operate against, to tighten monetary policy to control inflation expectations.
previously reported that in early January the four lines of credit 240 000 000 000 has been added, new types of financial institutions during the first 7 days close to 500 billion yuan of new loans, credit control pressure in January.
in the industry that the January 20 announcement of the policy before the CPI data vacuum, the central bank announced late on January 14 the first year raised the deposit reserve ratio. From January 20, 2011, the increase of RMB deposit-taking financial institutions deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points. This is the seventh time within a year the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio, thus, large financial institutions has reached 19% of historic highs.
central bank is worth mentioning that the assistant central bank governor Li Dongrong January 14 at the China Import and Export Ninth Annual Meeting of the company, said the central bank will seriously implement the sound monetary policy, strengthen macro-prudential management, good liquidity of the total gate, a reasonable guide reasonable growth of money and credit, maintain a reasonable scale of social finance. He also re-emphasized the central bank will continue to coordinate use of interest rates, deposit reserve ratio, open market operations such as price and quantity-based instruments.
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